The U.S. wheat starch market is expected to weak through June 2025 because of worldwide wheat oversupply, muted domestic and export demand, and competition from less expensive starches. Even with lower input prices, processors will experience low-capacity use and little in the way of buyer activity, maintaining wheat starch prices under constant downward pressure.
The US wheat starch market is projected to maintain its price decline pattern until June 2025, further prolonging the weakening trend evident since early Q1. Such sustained weakness is being fueled by a compound effect of the global wheat surplus, weak domestic and export demand, and fierce competition from other starches, all of which have undermined the market's pricing resilience vis-a-vis wheat starch.
The most influential supporting reason for the price decline is the underlying bearish momentum in the wheat commodity market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its May 2025 report estimated domestic ending wheat stocks around 923 million bushels—way higher than the five-year average. At the same time, global estimates for wheat production during the 2024/2025 season were raised, with optimistic harvest outlooks in major producers such as Russia, the EU, and Argentina. Such dynamics are causing robust downward pressures on wheat prices that make raw material costs less expensive for the manufacturers of starch thus assisting in lower prices of wheat starch.
But lower production costs have yet to produce greater pricing strength for wheat starch producers. Instead, processors across the Midwest reported they were running below capacity due to tepid demand. End-user industries such as food processing, paper production, and textiles reported muted procurement activity in May, something that is expected to persist in June. The food industry, which is typically the largest consumer of wheat starch, remained cautious in the face of high stocks and severe price stress from lower-priced starches like corn and tapioca.
Industrial use, including use in adhesives, coatings, and pharmaceuticals, stabilized but wasn't underway with any momentum. Buyers in these markets had primarily maintained a wait-and-see approach, with most of them anticipating more wheat starch price reductions before returning to the market in size.
Export trade provided no considerable assistance. U.S. wheat starch market continues to face stiff competition from Asian and Eastern European suppliers in foreign markets. China, India, and Poland have continued to undercut American bids in fresh tenders in Asia and Africa. To this, a relatively solid U.S. dollar has further rendered American-origin wheat starch unattractive to foreign buyers, further diminishing export levels of trade.
In the future, the wheat market will likely continue to stay soft during the month of June. With world wheat supplies well-covering and downstream demand continuing to be weak, prices will continue to be under pressure. Except for being led by unforeseen supply shortages or general macroeconomic changes, wheat starch price is forecasted to either move range-bound or slightly decline, extending the bearish tone to the U.S. market.
