As of November 2025, yellow phosphorus prices in the USA remain stable, with strong exports offsetting tighter domestic production of feedstocks. The supply of phosphate rock, the primary upstream raw material for yellow phosphorus, decreased by 7% from July levels in August. Additionally, inventories decreased; imports dropped by 34% year over year. Despite these challenges, the USA continues to be a significant exporter of yellow phosphorus, as Brazil received most of the shipments, while Canada and Germany continued to take smaller, steady volumes on an ongoing basis. The exports continued to perform very well throughout 2025, with exceptional performance shown for the busy months of February and August. The combination of tighter feedstock supply and anticipated seasonal declines will temper sentiment in early 2026; however, if phosphate rock availability becomes more stable and agricultural demand increases for yellow phosphorus, the yellow phosphorus industry may be better positioned for the next year, with increased production flexibility.
November 2025 marks the existence of a US yellow phosphorus market that is stable but supportive. Firm demand, well-managed producers, and ongoing constraints on feedstock characterise the environment for yellow phosphorus during the month. Support for the market continues to be driven by strong structural export markets, while domestic supply conditions continue to impact the US production strategy and the overall direction of the yellow phosphorus industry.
In the United States, the conditions of phosphate rock have continued to tighten as well, through late summer. The US output for August was reported at 1.63 million Metric Tons (MT), which is a 7% reduction from July and is also down from aggregate production totals for August 2024. Despite producing an aggregate total of 13.2 million tons of phosphates, processors had to contend with an available supply to process of only 1.58 million tons, which shows that there is still upstream pressure for available feedstocks.
Feedstock constraints intensified as US manufacturers’ stocks diminished to 8.53 million tons, representing a modest increase over July but a decline of 14% compared to August 2024. In addition, imports collapsed to just 201,000 tons in August, a decline of 27% compared to July, and a decline of 34% relative to last year. Together, these reductions have tightened the feedstock supply for companies producing yellow phosphorus; operators need to carefully plan day-to-day operations.
Although the US faces several obstacles within the domestic market, the international market has seen continuous and growing levels of demand for US yellow phosphorus. Brazil has historically remained the largest recipient of US yellow phosphorus shipments, as Brazil's large agricultural and agrochemical markets use a large amount of yellow phosphorus. Canada and Germany import small but steady volumes and serve the needs of the US yellow phosphorus market in support of industrial and specialty chemical applications.
Export volume was consistent throughout January (1,273,504 tons), and February (1,955,877 tons) experienced an increase. In March (898,807 tons), April (377,374 tons) volume declined sharply to May (1,184,176 tons) and June (745,831 tons). In July (751,922 tons), the trend of increasing export volumes resumed, and the August total reached (1,798,593 tons). All these positive export trends indicate that customers around the world choose US yellow phosphorus regardless of supply and cost constraints affecting the entire US yellow phosphorus value chain.
The seasonal trends observed in 2024 help create a clear reference. Throughout 2024, there were increases in exports until they peaked at 1,982.804 tons in March and then fell to 1,771.823 tons in November with a sharp drop off to 1,111.887 tons in December. This downward turn is related to typical end-of-year slowdowns, contract replacements, and lower agricultural needs, giving a good basis to estimate yellow phosphorus shipments at the end of 2025.
Looking ahead, if phosphate-rock production remains stable and agricultural demand grows, producers can expect some degree of security after many months of limited access to good feedstock. With continued export of yellow phosphorus to foreign markets and strict limitations on domestic production, analysts reasonably expect the yellow phosphorus market to experience moderate growth over the long term.
