US Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) prices increased by 2.2% in the final two weeks of November 2025, recovering very strongly from earlier lows as US domestic mills raised prices amid firm demand and a tightening supply situation. This development is part of a broader improvement within the US steel value chain, with producers turning more positive on Q1 2026 demand prospects.
Large steel producers in the US such as Nucor have raised prices through mid-November, a momentum is moving into the CRC market. Robust order flow for CRC and increasing lead times support the bullish outlook, with the buyers claiming that the mill schedules are now into January 2026. This rally is underpinned by tariff-driven market dynamics, specifically 50% Section 232 tariffs which are continuing to serve as a shield for domestic producers. These tariffs are effectively barring competition from Europe, Asia and other off-shore areas, splintering global steel trade flow and consolidating the US market on the side of local steel makers.
Meanwhile, CRC domestic supply is also tightening. US steel production in the week ending November 26, US steel mills had produced 1,758,000 net tons at a 76.7% capacity utilization rate, up from 1,740,000 tons at 76.0% the week prior. The year output is already passed the 77 million tons, but about 3% higher than the same period in 2024. At present, the degree of capacity utilization – constantly fluctuating between 76% and 77% – is regarded as equilibrium for the industry. Historical data suggest utilization rates higher than 78% put upward pressure on prices due to tightened supply, while levels lower than 75% can push the mills to reduce production.
Yet, the anticipated outages have tightened short term CRC market. Up to nine mill closures were already reported in early November, tallying with the price upturn in HRC and CRC prices amid constrained spot availability. At the same time, producers like Cleveland-Cliffs shut their December HRC order books early, indicative of robust order flow and limited capacity left for the year. Lead times now extend well into January, with many buyers scrambling to secure remaining 2025 CRC volumes.
Nevertheless, service centers are cautiously entering the market as they face the double whammy of managing inventories at year-end and dealing with tax implications. Many CRC purchasers choose to wait to restock in January to avoid higher inventory valuations in December. This conservative view could curb CRC demand at the spot level, with buyers retreating ahead of the holidays, to be followed by a restocking frenzy in early January as the tax treatment fades.
Together, the rising mill offers and recovering production, combined with capacity discipline and trade protections, that has underpinned US CRC price strength heading into 2026. With tariffs limiting import competition and domestic mills observed to be booked well into the future, the US steel market is expected to continue displaying strength in early 2026 unless there are unforeseen demand shocks or a swift expansion in supply.
