USDA Continues to Forecast Soybean Oil Use in Biofuel for 2023-2024

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on September 12, the USDA has retained its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production for the 2023-2024 period, while revising the estimate for the 2022-2023 soybean oil use in biofuel production upward.

The overall outlook for soybean supply and use in 2023-2024 presents a scenario of lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks.

The decrease in beginning stocks is attributed to higher exports in 2022-2023. Soybean production is anticipated to reach 4.1 billion bushels, marking a 59 million bushels decline due to a higher harvested area being offset by a lower yield. Harvested area has been increased by 100,000 acres compared to the August forecast. However, the soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down by 0.8 bushels from the previous month's estimate. The forecast for soybean crush is reduced by 10 million bushels, and the export forecast is down by 35 million bushels due to lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, reflecting a decrease of 25 million compared to the previous month.

The USDA's current prediction maintains that 12.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will be allocated to biofuel production for 2023-2024, consistent with the August WASDE forecast. For 2022-2023, the agency's estimate for soybean oil use in biofuel production has been revised upward to 11.8 billion pounds from last month's estimate of 11.7 billion pounds. In the 2021-2022 period, soybean oil use for biofuel production stood at 10.379 billion pounds.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecasted at $12.90 per bushel, marking an increase of 20 cents from the previous month. The soybean meal price remains unchanged at $380 per short ton, while the soybean oil price has been raised by 1 cent to 63 cents per pound.

On a global scale, the forecast for 2023-2024 soybean crush has been reduced by 1.8 million tons to 327.7 million tons, reflecting lower crush volumes in Argentina, Pakistan, the European Union, Thailand, and the U.S. Argentina's crush is expected to decrease by 1.8 million tons to 34.5 million due to lower anticipated supplies in the months leading up to next year's harvest. In contrast, China's crush is raised by 1 million tons to 96 million, aligning with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the previous marketing year.

Global soybean exports have been lowered by 400,000 tons to 168.4 million tons as a result of reduced U.S. exports, partially offset by increased shipments from Brazil and Ukraine. Imports have been reduced for Pakistan, Thailand, the European Union, and Indonesia. Conversely, China's imports for both 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 have been raised due to higher crush demand and anticipated continued large shipments from Brazil in the next marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are also reduced by 200,000 tons, now standing at 119.2 million tons.