USDA Raises Projection for Soybean Oil Usage in Biofuel

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) not only maintained its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production for the 2023-’24 period but also revised its estimate for the 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production, reflecting an upward adjustment.

The USDA's current soybean outlook for 2023-’24 foresees increased production and ending stocks, with soybean production expected to reach 4.13 billion bushels, a notable increase of 25 million bushels attributed to higher yields. This uptick in production is particularly significant in several states, including Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio.

According to the USDA's projections, the volume of soybean oil earmarked for biofuel production in the 2023-’24 period is estimated at 12.8 billion pounds. Concurrently, the estimate for soybean oil use in biofuel production during the 2022-’23 period has been revised upward to 12.4 billion pounds, surpassing last month's estimate of 12.1 billion pounds. For the ongoing 2021-’22 period, soybean oil use in biofuel production is reported at 10.379 billion pounds.

While crush and exports remain unaltered, soybean ending stocks have experienced an increase, reaching 245 million bushels. The USDA's forecast for the U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-’24 remains consistent at $12.90 per bushel from the previous month. Interestingly, the soybean oil price has seen a slight reduction of 2 cents, settling at 61 cents per pound, while the soybean meal price remains steady at $380 per short ton.

Turning to the global soybean supply and demand forecast for the 2023-’24 period, notable adjustments include lower beginning stocks, heightened production, increased crush, and diminished ending stocks. Beginning stocks have witnessed a reduction of 1.6 million tons, reflecting balancing revisions for China and Brazil from preceding years. China's diminished beginning stocks result from lower soybean imports during 2021-’22 and 2022-’23, coupled with increased crush projections for 2022-’23. Conversely, Brazil's beginning stocks have increased due to a larger 2022-’23 crop of 158 million tons, attributed to higher-than-expected usage to date.

Global soybean production for 2023-’24 has been raised by 900,000 tons, reaching 400.4 million tons, primarily driven by increased production in Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. This surge in production is paralleled by heightened crush figures for China and Russia. However, global soybean ending stocks have seen a reduction of 1.1 million tons, as the augmented stocks for Brazil and the U.S. are outweighed by diminished stocks for China.