Vague Fertilizers Market Outlook Weighs Over Yellow Phosphorus Quotations

New Delhi: In recent times, the complete global commodities arbitrage observing a persistent gyration in the upstream energy values amidst the geopolitical differences between the major economies across the regions. In response to the current market, the situation led to additional support for the anticipated post-pandemic inflation in the end-use consumer's goods, besides proportionally impacting the food prices across the globe.

The Fertilizers segment is among the majorly impacted due to the sanctions by the US and the EU with the support of several nations over Russia's energy supplies, followed by the retaliation of restricted exports of insulated Russian fertilizers from possible sanctions. That presented several uncertainties in the forthcoming availability of adequate fertilizers in the backdrop of the rising Food Price index. Statistics showcase that Russia alone is accountable for exporting 6% of potash, 20% of DAP and 13% of Urea to the US total Fertilizer imports. As a ripple effect, the supply-demand gap with swindling uncertainty over the Fertilizer market has levied its impact on the upstream value chain.

At present, the overall supply of phosphate rock continues to remain tight amidst the competitive environment among the downstream market players. In China, the overall inventories of the Yellow Phosphorus were running low, and the domestic players executed the pre-orders in June after the authorities removed the COVID restrictions. In addition, Tunisia has interrupted the export of Phosphates for the past ten years and has suddenly announced to resume the resumption of product in mid-June.         

According to the data released by the UN FAO, the food price index witnessed a persistent surge since the mid of the fourth quarter of 2021. However, in May 2022 Food Price Index observed a drop of 0.6% month-on-month to 157.4 after peaking at an all-time high of 159.7 points in March 2022. The cumulative data showcased that this dropped was merely an outcome of the removal of Indonesia's export ban on palm oil which instigated a drop of (-3.5%) in the vegetable oil market. Whereas meat prices continued to rise by (+0.5%) and the cereal prices index soared by (+2.2%) after the wheat export ban announced by India amidst the concern over crop conditions of the major exporting nations and reduced production in Ukraine.

As per ChemAnlasyt pricing intelligence, the offers for the Yellow Phosphorus are constantly fluctuating with the current market developments with an anticipated forecast of steady increment in offered quotations of Yellow Phosphorus. Whereas several market participants believe that the Yellow Phosphorus market is developing a bubble stage with the potential to witness a surge of 7-15% increment in the producer's offers across various regions. In addition, the market players consistently monitored the developments of the eastern European conflict as various factors regarding the increment in the prices of Yellow Phosphorus.