US and Chinese White oil prices remained steady during the initial half of October 2025, sustained by stable supply and steady but cautious demand. Well-established feedstock trends along with balanced procurement policies kept prices stable in both markets.
Chinese White oil prices were stable with a downward revision in the first half of October 2025. This was underpinned by a strong supply environment and stable, but conservative, demand in major sectors.
On the supply side, falling crude oil prices lowered the production cost, eradicating any cost support to White oil prices. In addition, toward the end of Q3, improved factory performance with increased output and smoother operations helped establish a solid supply base for White oil. Supply chain performance also improved, with the average lead times decreasing for the first time in seven months due to better supplier coordination and higher product availability, which further enhanced supply chain efficiency.
On the demand side, a 12.9% year-on-year rise in auto sales drove lubricant usage, but converters avoided aggressive restocking due to having sufficient inventories and weak holiday visibility. Golden Week weakness pushed out orders, and cyclical trends led customers to focus on inventory maintenance. White oil export sentiment was weak in the face of sustained U.S. tariffs pressure and regional macroeconomic softness. Overall, supply was balanced with demand, which maintained steady prices and set the stage for a smooth move into the final quarter.
In the US, cosmetic grade White oil (CFR Texas) also remained stable in early October 2025, reflecting a stable market underpinned by firm demand and supply. Domestic refining activity remained robust, while healthy inventory levels were preserved by firm commercial crude oil inventories and declining prices. White oil imports also underpinned supply stability—supported by declining Drewry's World Container Index, which decreased freight cost and landed price.
On the demand side, the cosmetic and personal industry remained the major consumption driver. Unilever and L'Oréal's strong Q3 performance induced steady buying of White oil, which is used in lotions, creams, and hair care products. However, increasing inflation—which rose to 3% in September on a year-on-year basis—forced customers to choose need-based purchasing over bulk purchasing, keeping the market in cautious mode.
Chinese and American White oil markets in the near term are expected to continue their present pricing trajectory in the absence of any dramatic turnabout in downstream demand or feedstock fundamentals. In China, the customary seasonal fourth-quarter slowdown during winter and lingering macroeconomic drags within the Asian market may dampen export-led momentum for White oil. In the U.S., however, inflationary pressures and restraint in consumer spending will probably hold back growth in the personal care category.
