White oil prices in China and the U.S. weakened through August 2025, pressured by ample supply, elevated inventories, and sluggish downstream demand, with only brief mid-month stability before renewed declines.
White oil prices in China and the United States followed a largely bearish trend in August 2025, pulled down by ample supply and lacklustre downstream demand. Refiners in China and the United States maintained steady production rates while inventories were high, limiting any room for an upside.
In China, White oil prices began August on a downward correction, reflecting market oversupply and persistently high refinery run rates. Traders reported storage tanks at near-full capacity late in July, with stable logistics at major ports facilitating continuous feedstock arrivals.
White oil prices stabilized by the second week supported by precautionary inventories and balanced refinery run rates, though demand signals continued to stay weak. The motor vehicle and the lubricant industry saw slow offtake—with automobile sales falling month-on-month in July—damping allied lubricant demands. Export channels offered little relief as U.S. tariffs affected trade flows, while Asian buyers favoured domestic purchases. The combined effect of weak downstream activity, high inventories, and forceful supplier pricing ultimately brought prices lower again late in the month.
In the US, White oil prices followed a similar path, starting August with price reduction owing to excessive supply and soft seasonal demand. Imports on the Gulf Coast remained stable, assisted by softer international freight rates, which reduced landed costs. High throughput and plentiful domestic crude inventories assisted refiners in keeping comfortable output levels.
White oil prices steadied by mid-August as balanced supply-demand conditions were observed, backed by good personal care consumption and robust export demand from India and Mexico's cosmetics sectors. Gulf Coast and Midwest refineries reported routine operations with no interference from weather and imports remained economic.
Industrial applications of White oil, however, continued to lag, and demand weakness returned by the end of the month, triggering a fresh round of price declines as suppliers encountered little resistance in maintaining excess material in inventory.
Going forward, both markets appear vulnerable to further declines unless the demand environment improves. In China, the sustained weakness in lubricants and poor export demand suggest persistent headwinds, particularly with the problems in the auto sector weighing on White oil consumption.
Seasonally weak softness in cosmetics in the U.S. is also unlikely to prevail over broader industrial weakness. Feedstock crude oil dynamics add even more uncertainty — OPEC+'s planned September output increase and rising U.S. commercial crude inventories both suggest a softer cost environment, which could cap any future price rebound for White oil market.
Without stronger downstream offtake or unexpected supply losses, China and the U.S. White oil prices will probably remain in the doldrums for the next few weeks.
