Sharing his insights on the evolving SAF landscape, Dange shed light on the opportunities and challenges shaping the industry’s future.
In a candid conversation, Dange explained why ever-changing geopolitical climate and mandates will not affect the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) industry in the long term. “Mandates are starting to go in. Policy is starting to change. Credits are starting to change. The requirement for sustainable aviation fuel is not going to go away.
“We’re just at the beginning point of this entire process. Even if one country shuts down the mandates, they’re going to have a hard time doing that across the globe. So, I think we're at the beginning of a critical point of having sustainable aviation fuel infrastructure over the next decade,” explains Dange.
He talked in length about the different technologies, SAF mandates and the market. Read the full article below.
1. You use HEFA technology to produce SAF. How does HEFA compare with other technologies such as Fischer-Tropsch, Alcohol-to-Jet, and Power-to-Liquids in terms of production, cost, and infrastructure requirements?
HEFA uses hydroprocessing of fats, oils, or greases to produce sustainable aviation fuel. Its feedstock can be costly, which we’re addressing. ATJ converts ethanol, Fischer-Tropsch relies on gasification, and Power-to-Liquids is more advanced. Moving from HEFA to these pathways lowers feedstock costs but increases infrastructure costs and technological risk. Today, HEFA remains the most viable method for commercial SAF production, balancing risk, cost, and scalability.
2. Do you think multiple SAF technologies can coexist long-term, or will one dominate?
Multiple technologies will coexist. Similar to TVs, which have LCD, LED, and OLED - SAF can be produced through different technological pathways. Having multiple methods is crucial to achieve jet fuel parity eventually.
3. How much does HEFA SAF cost per gallon?
It depends on the feedstock costs: used cooking oil in China is ~$3/gallon, U.S. corn distillers oil ~$4.50/gallon, and South American soybeans $2–3/gallon. Yield losses further increase costs, with conversion efficiencies around 80%. Overall, HEFA SAF remains far above conventional jet fuel in price, requiring innovation in feedstock sourcing, process efficiency, and scaling to reduce costs.
4. Do you foresee cost parity with conventional jet fuel within this decade?
Achieving cost parity with Jet A is challenging, as current SAF costs are significantly higher. Jet A is roughly $2 per gallon, while SAF feedstock costs alone range from $3–4.50 per gallon, depending on source. Parity could be achieved with low-cost feedstock combined with proven technology and optimized infrastructure, or through innovation that reduces production costs, but it remains a long-term goal rather than an immediate reality.
5. How smooth has the transition been from traditional fossil fuels to SAF so far?
The transition has been slow until this year, when multiple countries introduced mandates requiring SAF use in aviation. Notably, governments in the UK, and Europe have begun enforcing these requirements to reduce carbon emissions. This marks the first significant movement in SAF adoption, and as mandates are implemented over the next three to five years, we expect demand to grow sharply.
6. What have been the biggest hurdles in the transition?
The main challenges have been regulatory uncertainty, lack of pricing transparency, and limited financing for SAF projects. Policies are now stabilizing, which helps define market requirements. However, global production capacity remains insufficient, with only about 41 projects currently operational worldwide—far below the scale needed to meet growing demand. Financing and capital allocation are critical, as developing SAF infrastructure requires significant investment, and stakeholders are cautiously navigating this regulatory landscape.
7. Which countries are lagging most in SAF adoption?
African countries are currently behind in SAF adoption due to slower policy development. While not entirely inactive, their mandates and regulatory frameworks are less defined compared to more progressive countries.
8. How is India performing in SAF adoption?
India has implemented a 1% SAF blending target for 2027, representing a solid starting point. The real challenge is moving from zero to one percent, establishing the initial policy and infrastructure. Incremental increases from this baseline will be easier once the initial framework is in place, and India is approaching this thoughtfully, aligning policy, industry engagement, and market readiness.
9. Are current geopolitical conditions and Trump’s tariffs adding pressure to SAF growth worldwide?
In the U.S., SAF growth is influenced by credit-based incentives rather than mandates. Federal credits, now slightly reduced, have historically supported production, while states like California, Illinois, and Minnesota offer additional incentives. Geopolitical issues and tariffs create uncertainty, potentially delaying new projects, but producers with existing facilities are positioned advantageously. Long-term, SAF development depends on foresight, policy stability, and willingness to invest in infrastructure despite changing political and regulatory conditions.
10. Given Biden’s pro-green administration versus Trump’s anti-green stance, how has the SAF industry navigated this political paradigm shift?
Biden’s pro-ESG policies initially boosted investment in green fuels, while the Trump administration temporarily shifted focus toward petroleum, reducing green premiums. Despite these swings, SAF remained part of national energy policy. Companies already producing SAF are positioned well to unlock value, while capital allocation adjusts among public equity, private equity, and digital assets. The industry navigates regulatory and financial shifts, balancing ESG objectives with economic realities.
11. Is SAF long-term stable and viable if political changes occur, such as a Trump reelection?
SAF is at the early stages of global adoption. Mandates, policy, and credit structures are evolving but unlikely to disappear, even with political changes. Countries unable to maintain mandates will face pressure due to global demand. Over the next decade, SAF infrastructure development is expected to accelerate, making the market increasingly resilient and critical for decarbonizing aviation.
12. How important are government grants like Australia’s $1 billion program?
Government incentives are vital for SAF growth. They encourage infrastructure investment, stimulate production, and help airlines meet mandates. Incentive programs complement regulatory policies, creating a market that drives innovation and supply expansion, particularly in regions with abundant feedstocks and favorable geography.
13. What drives investors to fund SAF projects?
Very simple. Money. Investors are driven by three primary motivations: purely economic returns, dual benefits of profit and environmental impact, and a passion for climate action with patience for long-term returns. SAF appeals across these categories, attracting capital interested in both financial performance and decarbonization impact, reflecting the intersection of market demand, policy, and sustainability.
14. How important are market intelligence tools in SAF production?
Market intelligence tools are critical for supply chain optimization. Accurate pricing, analytics, and logistics data inform feedstock procurement, shipping, and production planning. Efficient supply chain management can significantly impact profitability and operational success, making real-time market insights a key competitive advantage in SAF production.
15. What are the challenges and opportunities in scaling SAF production globally?
Key challenges are regulatory clarity, supply chain development, and project financing. Countries must move from initial mandates to achievable targets, while innovators build infrastructure to meet demand. Financing remains crucial, especially for early-stage projects, with tolling agreements and supply contracts still evolving. Opportunities lie in leveraging these early-stage markets to scale production efficiently and develop sustainable business models aligned with expanding SAF mandates.
16. Which companies have you partnered with for SAF?
We signed with Phillips 66 for feedstock intake and SAF off-take and are exploring additional airline and wholesaler partnerships. These collaborations optimize supply, reduce costs, and strengthen market access, which is essential as SAF becomes a high-demand, globally traded product.
17. Do you plan to diversify into other carbon-free fuels?
Currently, the focus remains on SAF due to high promise and low global penetration. Stage-based expansion into low-carbon liquids may precede pure SAF scaling. The strategy allows incremental adoption, aligning production capacity with market demand and regulatory evolution while maintaining readiness for emerging pathways and technologies.
18. Now that XCF is public, what’s next?
Our mission is to lead global SAF production and reduce aviation carbon emissions. With one operational facility, New Rise Reno, producing renewable diesel during its ramp-up stage before transitioning back to SAF, we aim to scale rapidly and influence industry transformation. Being publicly traded gives us access to capital and market visibility, supporting growth, strategic partnerships, and long-term leadership in decarbonizing aviation.
ChemAnalyst’s Insights:
Usage of airline fuel consumption lagged behind 2024 levels, with April usage down 18% year-over-year, and fuel costs per gallon fell 3.8% from March despite growing passenger traffic. Supply-side conditions remained stable, supported by uninterrupted Gulf Coast refining operations and steady imports from sources such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and Russia.
