For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
North America witnessed steady growth in aluminium alloy ingot prices throughout Q1 2025, largely driven by resilient demand and evolving trade policies. The region's supply chain dynamics were shaped by moderate production levels, continued reliance on imports, and shifting demand from major downstream industries like automotive and construction.
In the USA, prices displayed a continuous upward trend over the quarter, rising steadily from the start and culminating at USD 3166/mt DEL Alabama by quarter-end. When compared to Q4 2024, quarter-on-quarter prices rose by 4.1%. The rise stemmed from several factors, notably the implementation of a 25% tariff on aluminium imports, which tightened foreign supply and heightened competition for domestic scrap. This, in turn, increased production costs.
While inventories on the London Metal Exchange declined, demand from sectors like EV manufacturing and construction remained strong. EV sales saw steady growth, and construction activity expanded with notable job additions across all segments. The U.S. also experienced firm export demand and ongoing supply-side constraints, both of which supported continued price momentum. These combined dynamics suggest persistent price support heading into Q2 2025.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region witnessed a steady upswing in aluminium alloy ingot prices, primarily influenced by recovering industrial activity and evolving trade dynamics. The regional market was shaped by constrained supply from key exporters, especially China, coupled with growing demand from downstream industries. In Indonesia, aluminium alloy ingot prices demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory throughout the quarter, closing at USD 2,887/mt CFR Tanjung Priok. When compared to Q4 2024, the quarter-on-quarter price increased by 5.1%. Early in the quarter, robust demand from the automotive and electronics sectors supported price gains, while mid-quarter saw temporary supply tightness due to production shutdowns in China and port delays. Toward the end of the quarter, improved raw material availability and stable demand from construction and automotive sectors contributed to a slight rebound. Manufacturing activity showed encouraging signs, underpinned by rising new orders and a strong push in domestic alumina production, aiming to elevate Indonesia’s aluminium output. Despite challenges such as input cost pressures and currency fluctuations, the market remained buoyant, supported by resilient industrial demand and strategic investment initiatives.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European aluminium alloy ingot market remained under upward pressure due to persistent supply constraints and rising demand across industrial sectors. The European Commission’s proposed ban on Russian aluminium imports, coupled with declining LME inventories and seasonal scrap shortages, shaped a bullish pricing environment throughout the continent. Focusing on Germany, aluminium alloy ingot prices witnessed a steady increase across the quarter, closing at USD 2804/mt FD-Willich. When compared to Q4 2024, the quarter-on-quarter price declined by -1.7%, despite continuous price gains from the start to the end of Q1. Early signs of recovery emerged amid increased freight costs and modest upticks in demand from the electric vehicle (EV) and solar energy sectors. However, Germany's manufacturing base remained weak, with declining domestic demand and disrupted supply chains due to logistical issues and a Moselle River accident. Mid-quarter, tightening scrap supply, rising EV registrations, and geopolitical tensions further pushed prices. By quarter-end, strong demand, reduced inventories, and ongoing logistics disruptions sustained market bullishness. Germany’s aluminium alloy market, while still fragile, showed resilient signs of improvement.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, aluminum alloy ingot prices in North America declined by 14% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softened demand and persistent supply chain challenges. The market was influenced by global economic uncertainties, subdued downstream activity, and fluctuating trade policies. Weakened demand from the automotive sector, particularly in the U.S., and cautious procurement strategies across industries contributed to the price decline.
In Mexico, prices followed a similar downward trend, with significant fluctuations throughout the quarter. The automotive sector, a key driver of demand, displayed mixed results. While overall vehicle production and exports saw modest year-over-year growth, some manufacturers experienced production reductions, reflecting broader economic caution. Demand was further dampened by concerns over potential U.S. protectionist policies, port congestion, and a shortage of high-quality aluminum scrap. Despite these challenges, the sector showed resilience, driven by strong vehicle sales and increasing investment in manufacturing.
Although domestic production remained steady, subdued consumer spending and seasonal closures further pressured prices. The Mexican market closed the quarter cautiously, with hopes for recovery tied to stabilizing trade dynamics and improved industrial activity in the coming year. By the end of the quarter, prices stabilized, with aluminum alloy ingot (A383) CFR Veracruz (Mexico) at USD 2892/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aluminium alloy ingot prices in Europe declined by 17%, reflecting persistent challenges across key industries. The downturn was influenced by reduced demand in the automotive sector, particularly in Germany, where sluggish electric vehicle sales and economic uncertainties weighed heavily on market sentiment. The insolvency filing of WKW. Group and Volkswagen's plans to scale down operations underscored the pressures facing the automotive supply chain, further dampening demand for aluminium alloy ingots. Despite stable supply chains, high energy costs and subdued industrial activity added to the downward price pressure. In Turkey, Aluminium alloy ingot prices mirrored the European trend, closing the quarter at USD 2627/MT Ex Ankara. The domestic manufacturing sector faced challenges, with reduced capacity utilization and weak automotive production contributing to the decline. Vehicle production dropped by 10.4% year-on-year, directly impacting aluminium demand. While initiatives like the expansion of bauxite production and investments in rolling mill capacity aim to boost future supply, current demand remained moderate. The automotive sector showed mixed signals, with a slight uptick in electric and hybrid vehicle sales, but broader industry weakness persisted. Coupled with surplus inventory and cautious procurement strategies, the market maintained a bearish sentiment throughout the quarter.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Asian Aluminium Alloy Ingot market saw a 4.4% price increase, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. Japan's market played a significant role in this upward trend, supported by resilient downstream industries like automotive and electronics, as well as increased imports. Despite global disruptions in aluminum production and logistics, Japan maintained steady domestic production, with manufacturers operating near capacity to offset reduced imports. Rising energy costs and stricter environmental regulations added to production expenses, but operational efficiencies mitigated these impacts. Demand in Japan's automotive sector remained strong, with export markets showing resilience despite declining domestic vehicle sales. Additionally, a depreciating yen bolstered exports, contributing to price growth. However, logistical challenges and shifting trade policies, such as China's cancellation of export tax rebates, tightened supply further. The construction and packaging industries maintained stable demand, while the electronics sector experienced growth fueled by higher PC and semiconductor shipments. By the end of the quarter, Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) CFR Tokyo stood at USD 2635/MT. Japan's aluminum market reflects a mix of challenges and growth opportunities, underpinned by evolving trade dynamics, resilient downstream demand, and cautious optimism for continued stability into 2025.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a challenging quarter characterized by decreasing prices. Several significant factors influenced market prices, including oversupply issues, weakening demand from key sectors like automotive, and uncertainties surrounding global trade dynamics.
Specifically, Mexico experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 2% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. The downturn in Mexico's manufacturing sector, which is partially due to a slump in U.S. manufacturing, has affected demand levels. Additionally, energy markets have influenced the situation, as oil prices fell after the hurricane season, which may help reduce costs for manufacturers.
The overall trends in Mexico reflected a seasonality impact, with a correlation in price changes showing a consistent downward trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter indicated a 6% decrease, highlighting the sustained pressure on prices. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) CFR Veracruz in Mexico stood at USD 3192/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
The Europe region's Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in Q3 2024 witnessed a notable decrease in prices, influenced by several significant factors. Specifically, Turkey experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 3% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. An oversupply, coupled with diminished demand from key downstream industries like electronics and manufacturing, has been instrumental in this price reduction. The automotive sector's weakened consumption has further intensified the drop. Turkey, in particular, saw the most drastic price fluctuations, mirroring a broader economic deceleration as evidenced by lower sales volumes across multiple industries. The price disparity of 7% between the first and second halves of the quarter underscores the persistent downward pressure on prices. The current market sentiment towards Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in Europe is decidedly bearish, as indicated by the quarter's concluding price point. As the quarter came to a close, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot in Turkey was recorded at USD 3192 per metric ton, delivered Ex Ankara.
APAC
In the APAC region, the pricing of Aluminium Alloy Ingots has maintained a consistent level throughout the third quarter of 2024. Market prices remained relatively stable due to several influential factors. The supply demand balance played a crucial role, with a steady supply of aluminium alloys meeting moderate demand levels. Raw material availability and production costs were stable, contributing to the overall price stability. Additionally, economic uncertainties and cautious trading behavior influenced market dynamics, leading to a balanced pricing environment.
In Japan, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this period. However, from the previous quarter in 2024, there was a slight decrease of 2%, suggesting some market fluctuations. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variations, maintaining a stable pricing environment. The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain current interest rates provides a stable economic environment, potentially supporting the aluminium alloy market and related industries. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) stood at USD 2499/MT CFR Tokyo, reflecting the prevailing stability in Japan's market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a pronounced upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of critical factors. Supply-side constraints, including raw material shortages and logistical disruptions, played a pivotal role in bolstering prices. Additionally, robust demand from key industrial sectors such as automotive, construction, and energy transition applications further intensified market dynamics. Environmental regulations and sustainability mandates have also elevated production costs, contributing to the pricing surge. The market's bullish sentiment was underpinned by heightened investor interest and strategic stockpiling amid geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Focusing on the USA, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market epitomized this quarter’s bullish trend, marked by a significant price escalation. Seasonality influenced price patterns, with demand peaking due to summer-driven consumption and industrial activity ramp-up. A comparative analysis within the quarter revealed a 2% price increment between the first and second halves, indicating sustained upward momentum.
Concluding the quarter, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot price stood at USD 3374/MT DEL Alabama (USA), encapsulating the overall positive sentiment. The pricing environment remained robust, driven by persistent supply constraints, heightened industrial demand, and strategic market behaviours, thereby affirming a stable-to-positive outlook for Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in North America.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a consistent upward trend in Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices in the Europe region, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant impetus for this rise has been the geopolitical tensions impacting energy costs and supply chains. As European energy prices soared, aluminium smelters faced increased production costs, catalysing higher market prices. The imposition of stringent environmental regulations also contributed to supply constraints, particularly in bauxite mining and alumina production, exacerbating the price surge. Furthermore, the ongoing sanctions on Russian aluminium have disrupted global supply chains, compelling European markets to seek alternative, often costlier, sources.
Focusing on Germany, the country witnessed the most pronounced price changes. The overall market sentiment in Germany remained largely positive, with the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter shows a 7% increment, indicating a steady upward trajectory throughout the period. This robust growth reflects the heightened demand from downstream industries, notably the automotive and construction sectors, which saw a moderate recovery. Seasonal factors also played a role, with manufacturing activities typically ramping up in the spring, further bolstering demand.
Concluding the quarter, the price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot stood at USD 3464/MT FD-Willich (Germany), signifying a stable yet positive pricing environment. This consistent increase underscores the resilience of the German market amid broader European supply challenges, reflecting sustained demand and strategic market adjustments.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the APAC region witnessed a noticeable uptrend in pricing, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant driver was the robust demand from key sectors such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure, wherein aluminium's lightweight and durable properties play a crucial role. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, constrained supply, further exacerbating the price elevation. Increased production costs, owing to rising energy prices and raw material expenses, also contributed to the upward momentum. Investment in new technologies and green initiatives aimed at reducing carbon footprints added to the operational costs, underpinning the higher pricing landscape.
Focusing on China, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend was bullish. Seasonal dynamics, such as heightened construction activities in the summer months, amplified demand, contributing to price hikes. The correlation between increased demand and reduced inventory levels was evident, reinforcing the upward trajectory. The price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in China rose comparing the first and second half of the quarter, there was a 1% price increment, reflecting a sustained positive sentiment.
The quarter ended with Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices at USD 2543/MT Ex Shanghai, indicating a stable yet progressively increasing pricing environment. This positive sentiment underscores the market's resilience amidst fluctuating global economic conditions and highlights the enduring strength of demand-supply dynamics in the APAC region's aluminium sector.
