For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot Price Index rose by 13.61% quarter-over-quarter, from scrap scarcity and tariffs.
• The average Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot price for the quarter was approximately USD 3649.00/MT, supporting demand and stability.
• Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot Spot Price showed upside while Price Index remained elevated amid scrap tightness and premiums.
• Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot Production Cost Trend saw higher scrap and energy costs, compressing mill margins and profits.
• Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot Demand Outlook is mixed as automotive supports demand while construction weakens September and seasonally.
• Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot Price Forecast indicates range-bound movement as rising imports offset tight scrap concerns and volatility.
• Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot Price Index benefitted from uninterrupted casthouse operations, limiting downside despite inventory builds and imports.
• Trans-Pacific container congestion intermittently raised landed costs, influencing Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot Spot Price and freight.
Why did the price of Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot change in September 2025 in North-America?
• Surging imports and primary availability expanded supply, exerting downward pressure on Aluminium-Alloy-Ingot prices.
• Elevated scrap inventories and softer downstream orders reduced offtake, contributing to September's Price Index weakness.
• Tariff distortions and logistics congestion raised landed costs, partially offsetting supply-driven price declines during September.
APAC
• In Japan, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index rose by 1.99% quarter-over-quarter, driven by logistics costs.
• The average Aluminium Alloy Ingot price for the quarter was USD 2786.00/MT, reflecting range-bound dynamics.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Spot Price firmed on scrap tightness, prompting buyers accept higher import premiums.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Forecast suggests modest upside, although Price Index remains vulnerable to inventories.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Production Cost Trend tightened from yen weakness, wage growth and rising demurrage.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Demand Outlook stays mixed as automotive softness offsets infrastructure-driven order increments modestly.
• Visible stocks and lower freight reduced costs, amplifying pressure on Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index.
• Operational continuity at smelters limited supply disruption, keeping Aluminium Alloy Ingot market activity relatively balanced.
Why did the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Scrap shortages in September tightened feedstock availability, triggering upward spot buying and premium repricing dynamics.
• Elevated import parity from yen weakness increased delivered costs, supporting domestic offers despite weak demand.
• Inventory accumulation from imports and lower automotive call-offs depressed spot liquidity, amplifying downward price pressure.
Europe
• In Germany, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index rose by 0.10% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stable supply-demand balance.
• The average Aluminium Alloy Ingot price for the quarter was approximately USD 2704.67/MT, industry benchmarked.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Spot Price showed modest volatility amid balanced scrap flows and smelter utilization.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Forecast points to range-bound movement through autumn, driven by seasonal demand.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Production Cost Trend tightened as energy and Rhine surcharges nudged delivered costs.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Demand Outlook remains muted with automotive registrations weak, OEM restocking expected soon.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index weakness reflected rising inventories and diverted North American flows moderating.
• High utilisation at major producers cushioned shocks, yet logistical surcharges and holiday stoppages tempered buying.
Why did the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Seasonal summer lull reduced downstream procurement, especially automotive, lowering alloy offtake across Germany in August.
• Rising finished-product and silicon inventories eased premia, exerting downward pressure on domestic Price Index levels.
• Energy and logistics cost increases along with idled die-casting lines raised costs, constrained restocking incentives.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The quarter-on-quarter Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index in North America rose by 6.6% compared to Q1 2025, reflecting tightening supply and strong end use demand in key sectors.
• Aluminium alloy ingot production cost trend highlights that elevated scrap availability pressures and high energy costs eroded margins throughout the quarter, while import tariffs and freight premiums added to upstream costs.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Demand Outlook remained firm: domestic consumption held steady across automotive, aerospace and construction, with modest strength from manufacturers restocking ahead of expected production uptick.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Forecast for the medium term suggests a continued upward bias into late 2025, provided trade constraints persist, and demand stays robust—though relief in scrap supply or tariff adjustments could moderate gains.
• Compared to Q1, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index saw sustained upward momentum from early quarter supply shortages, resurfacing logistics bottlenecks and restocking by end users by the end of the quarter.
• By the end of the quarter, warehouse and distributor inventories remained relatively tight, with no major disruptions—keeping upward pressure on Price Index levels.
Why did the price of aluminium alloy ingot change in July 2025 in North America?
After July 1, the Price Index moved upwards sharply: scrap feed scarcity and record-high U.S. import premiums, especially following the doubling of tariffs to 50%, pushed U.S. alloy offers higher. Data shows alloy ingot prices surged in the first week of July, reaching around USD 3,623/MT DEL Alabama as of July 4, a result of tight scrap, firmer LME base aluminium and escalating import costs
APAC
• The Aluminium alloy Ingot Price Index in APAC fell by approximately 2.5% in Q2 2025 compared with Q1 2025, reflecting overall softer pricing momentum.
• The Aluminium alloy Ingot Production Cost Trend during the quarter showed easing input costs, raw material availability improved, scrap supplies became more accessible, while logistical and freight expenses declined, supporting a modest easing in cost pressures.
• The Aluminium alloy Ingot Demand Outlook remained weak across key sectors: automotive and construction demand stayed subdued, downstream industries preferred depleting existing inventory rather than restocking, and economic uncertainties dampened procurement sentiment.
• Supply-side dynamics saw increased imports and smoother trade flows from major sources such as China and the Middle East, boosting available inventories. This excess availability, together with slow demand, pressured spot prices. Meanwhile, aluminium scrap and other raw materials were plentiful, contributing to stable to declining production cost trends.
• The Aluminium alloy Ingot Price Forecast is cautiously neutral to slightly bearish in the near term: with oversupply expected to continue and demand unlikely to materially rebound, prices may remain under pressure through mid 2025, absent upstream policy shifts or demand spurts.
Why did the price of aluminium alloy ingot change in July 2025 in Asia?
Aluminium prices across Asia saw a modest uptick in mid July. This increase has translated into a small uptick in the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index, driven by tightening perceptions in primary aluminium and minor replenishment of buying amid expectations of shorter supply.
Europe
• The Price Index for aluminium alloy ingots in Europe fell 1.7% quarter on quarter versus Q1 2025, reflecting oversupply and weak downstream demand.
• The Production Cost Trend was shaped by declining freight rates and softened raw material (scrap) costs, but high energy costs in Europe limited meaningful cost relief.
• The Demand Outlook remained subdued, with automotive and construction sectors delaying purchases and relying on inventory drawdowns. Overall industrial demand was cautious due to economic uncertainty and weak sentiment.
• Mid quarter, elevated inventories and maintained supply flows led to another ~1% weekly decline, with spot transactions subdued and export demand softening.
• The Price Forecast for Europe remains neutral to slightly positive: though the overall quarter saw a decline, potential production cuts (e.g. resumption in Voerde Q4 2025) and tightening scrap supply may provide support later in 2025
Why did the price of Aluminium alloy Ingot change in July 2025 in Europe?
By early to mid July 2025, aluminium alloy prices in broader markets (e.g. ADC12 in China, relevant proxy for secondary alloy market) increased, as tightening scrap availability and rising aluminium premium costs boosted procurement values. In July 2025, the Price Index increased modestly, reversing prior downward pressure due to tighter scrap supply, elevated input costs, and tariff driven trade distortions.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index in the US displayed steady growth during Q1 2025, with spot prices reaching USD 3,166/MT DEL Alabama by quarter-end.
• On quarter-on-quarter basis, price of the product rose by 4%, indicating high demand, tariff-related supply tightening, and high production costs.
• The 25% tariff on aluminium imports contributed significantly to the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Production Cost Trend, pushing prices upward.
• Inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined, while automotive and EV manufacturing, along with the construction sector, sustained demand.
• Export momentum and supply-side constraints further supported the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Spot Price.
• Why did the price of Aluminium Alloy ingot change in April 2025 in the US? Prices were high, carried over from the Q1 momentum due to import restrictions and strong end-use demand.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Demand Outlook remains bullish, backed by infrastructure investments and electric mobility trends.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Forecast for Q2 2025 indicates likely continuation of the upward trend if import limitations persist and demand holds steady.
Asia Pacific (APAC)
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index in the APAC region reflected an upward trajectory, driven by growing industrial activity and regional supply limitations.
• Aluminium Alloy Ingot Spot prices in Indonesia closed at USD 2,887/MT CFR Tanjung Priok, up 5.1% quarter-over-quarter.
• Price gains were influenced by robust demand from automotive and electronics, production shutdowns in China, and temporary port delays.
• Despite improving raw material availability later in the quarter, the overall pricing trend remained firm due to resilient demand.
• Indonesia’s push in domestic alumina production aimed to strengthen regional output, influencing the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Production Cost Trend.
• Why did the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot change in April 2025 in Asia? Prices were high, extending from Q1 due to manufacturing activity rebound and steady construction demand.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Demand Outlook stays strong, supported by strategic investments and regional manufacturing growth.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Forecast suggests continued strength into Q2, assuming demand from EV and infrastructure sectors persists.
Europe
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Index in Europe showed a mixed trend, with spot prices in Germany closing at USD 2,804/MT FD-Willich.
• Despite steady month-on-month price increases, the quarter-on-quarter price dipped by -1.7%, reflecting initial market weakness.
• Early Q1 saw moderate price gains due to freight cost increases and recovery signs in EV and solar sectors.
• The European Commission’s proposed ban on Russian aluminium imports, scrap shortages, and declining LME inventories supported price resilience.
• Germany's domestic demand stayed weak, hindered by manufacturing sector struggles, logistical disruptions, and the Moselle River accident.
• Mid-to-late Q1, tightening scrap supply and geopolitical tensions raised the Aluminium Alloy Ingot Spot Price, despite the overall quarterly dip.
• Why did the European price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot change in April 2025? Prices were high, continuing from late Q1 due to reduced inventories and elevated freight costs.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Demand Outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential upside if industrial recovery continues in Q2.
• The Aluminium Alloy Ingot Price Forecast remains neutral to positive, hinging on policy shifts and sustained demand from renewable energy sectors.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, aluminum alloy ingot prices in North America declined by 14% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softened demand and persistent supply chain challenges. The market was influenced by global economic uncertainties, subdued downstream activity, and fluctuating trade policies. Weakened demand from the automotive sector, particularly in the U.S., and cautious procurement strategies across industries contributed to the price decline.
In Mexico, prices followed a similar downward trend, with significant fluctuations throughout the quarter. The automotive sector, a key driver of demand, displayed mixed results. While overall vehicle production and exports saw modest year-over-year growth, some manufacturers experienced production reductions, reflecting broader economic caution. Demand was further dampened by concerns over potential U.S. protectionist policies, port congestion, and a shortage of high-quality aluminum scrap. Despite these challenges, the sector showed resilience, driven by strong vehicle sales and increasing investment in manufacturing.
Although domestic production remained steady, subdued consumer spending and seasonal closures further pressured prices. The Mexican market closed the quarter cautiously, with hopes for recovery tied to stabilizing trade dynamics and improved industrial activity in the coming year. By the end of the quarter, prices stabilized, with aluminum alloy ingot (A383) CFR Veracruz (Mexico) at USD 2892/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aluminium alloy ingot prices in Europe declined by 17%, reflecting persistent challenges across key industries. The downturn was influenced by reduced demand in the automotive sector, particularly in Germany, where sluggish electric vehicle sales and economic uncertainties weighed heavily on market sentiment. The insolvency filing of WKW. Group and Volkswagen's plans to scale down operations underscored the pressures facing the automotive supply chain, further dampening demand for aluminium alloy ingots. Despite stable supply chains, high energy costs and subdued industrial activity added to the downward price pressure. In Turkey, Aluminium alloy ingot prices mirrored the European trend, closing the quarter at USD 2627/MT Ex Ankara. The domestic manufacturing sector faced challenges, with reduced capacity utilization and weak automotive production contributing to the decline. Vehicle production dropped by 10.4% year-on-year, directly impacting aluminium demand. While initiatives like the expansion of bauxite production and investments in rolling mill capacity aim to boost future supply, current demand remained moderate. The automotive sector showed mixed signals, with a slight uptick in electric and hybrid vehicle sales, but broader industry weakness persisted. Coupled with surplus inventory and cautious procurement strategies, the market maintained a bearish sentiment throughout the quarter.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Asian Aluminium Alloy Ingot market saw a 4.4% price increase, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. Japan's market played a significant role in this upward trend, supported by resilient downstream industries like automotive and electronics, as well as increased imports. Despite global disruptions in aluminum production and logistics, Japan maintained steady domestic production, with manufacturers operating near capacity to offset reduced imports. Rising energy costs and stricter environmental regulations added to production expenses, but operational efficiencies mitigated these impacts. Demand in Japan's automotive sector remained strong, with export markets showing resilience despite declining domestic vehicle sales. Additionally, a depreciating yen bolstered exports, contributing to price growth. However, logistical challenges and shifting trade policies, such as China's cancellation of export tax rebates, tightened supply further. The construction and packaging industries maintained stable demand, while the electronics sector experienced growth fueled by higher PC and semiconductor shipments. By the end of the quarter, Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) CFR Tokyo stood at USD 2635/MT. Japan's aluminum market reflects a mix of challenges and growth opportunities, underpinned by evolving trade dynamics, resilient downstream demand, and cautious optimism for continued stability into 2025.
