For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, US market Aspirin prices fell significantly due to sporadic fluctuations between supply and demand during the month. Abnormally low levels of purchase by the end-user industry have led domestic suppliers to stock large amounts of aspirin in warehouses, resulting in continued lower costs in the domestic market. The euro strengthened against the US dollar in the second quarter of 2023. This made it more expensive for US buyers to source Aspirin from Europe, contributing to the price drop. The price ended Q2 2023 at USD 3480/CFR Los Angeles, down an average of 7.64% per quarter. Falling fares also supported the downward trend. US imports fall as companies struggle to sell excess inventories. Import cargo volumes at major US container ports also fell. Geopolitics have always pushed importers to ship their goods through East Coast ports. In addition, weak demand and high inventories weighed on market trading fundamentals. Moreover, despite stagnating demand, retailers are facing inflation in ordered inventory to meet increased demand during the pandemic and possible shortages in the future.
Asia
Aspirin market prices fell significantly in the second quarter of 2023 due to weak domestic and international orders. This price was valued and bought at 3,080 USD/MT FOB Shanghai as of the end of Q3 2023, representing an average quarterly decline of 10.35%. During the quarter, the PMI fell below 50 points, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is contracting. China's import and export activities were mixed. China's retail and producer inflation remains subdued as consumer and industrial sectors struggle to recover from the pandemic. Exports decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.9%. The decline in exports was due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the slowdown in the global economy. The import increase was driven by government efforts to revitalize the Chinese economy and boost domestic demand. China's slowdown in manufacturing activity and slowing service sector growth are recent examples of difficulties in the uneven economic recovery after COVID-19. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has taken steps to cool the economy, including raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. In addition, market sentiment continued to be subdued due to declining buyer demand, declining sales from downstream industries, and a lack of new inquiries from domestic and foreign suppliers. Some market participants are reducing inventories of aspirin to reduce inventories and improve cash flow.
Europe
Aspirin market conditions showed a downward trend in the second quarter of 2023. Aspirin prices in Hamburg fell by an average of 8.57% in the quarter to USD 3,355/MT CFR. German aspirin prices were trending downward as demand from the downstream sector slowed, and imports from exporting countries such as China slowed. Market sentiment was further supported by improved trading activity. Tariffs between China and the US West Coast have recently returned to pre-pandemic levels, significantly easing congestion, and as a result, sea freight prices have also fallen, impacting overall market conditions. According to a report from the Federal Statistical Office, Germany's inflation rate fell to 7.4% in March 2023. Additionally, German consumers are experiencing falling energy costs, which may surprise those accustomed to rising energy costs. This decline in demand and the continued supply of generics has driven down prices. German consumers are increasingly choosing over-the-counter pain relievers over prescription drugs. This is due to several factors, including OTC medicines' convenience and low cost.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the Aspirin market witnessed a deprecating trajectory in the North American region. Prices were witnessed to be on the lower end throughout Q1 2023 because of weak domestic demand, according to market fundamentals. The fact that domestic retailers had ample inventories among themselves also influenced the market scenario negatively. The slowed Aspirin market, brought on by falling feed Salicylic Acid prices, also affected the production cost. At the end of the first quarter, Aspirin values were accessed at USD 4420/MT with an average quarterly declination of 6.83%.
Asia Pacific
The market prices for Aspirin relinquished significantly in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of a declined demand from the downstream food, pharmaceutical, and healthcare industries. The prices were accessed at USD 4275/MT FOB Shanghai with an average quarterly declination of 4.18%. The price trajectory for the feedstock Salicylic Acid also showed a sharp fall, which had a detrimental impact on the Aspirin market. Also, domestic merchants had to drop their quotations to clear stock because the demand from the domestic market was lower than usual, and the volume of orders was lower than typical from the international market too. Nonetheless, the prices were recorded to stabilize at the termination of Q1 2023, backed by static demand and enough inquiries from the overseas market.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2023, the prices for Aspirin in the European market showcased a depreciating trajectory. At the end of the first quarter of 2023, Aspirin values were accessed at USD 4390/MT CFR Hamburg with an average quarterly declination of 9.95%. The market fundamentals showed that Aspirin prices depreciated throughout the month of January due to Lackluster demand from the domestic market. The availability of sufficient inventories on the shelves of domestic merchants had combinedly impacted the market situation. Feedstock Salicylic Acid prices also influenced the production cost keeping the Aspirin market feeble. Moreover, the extreme depreciation in the freight charges also added to the feeble market situation.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the North American market witnessed seesaw sentiments for Aspirin due to fluctuating demand from downstream pharmaceutical industries. The prices of Aspirin in the US market surged until November and were assessed at USD 5705/MT but scaled down slightly to USD 5525/MT in December. Supply chain disruptions from a major exporting country, mainly China, were noted due to the Golden week vacation in the first week of October and later Covid restrictions. However, demand from downstream pharmaceutical industries has been strong owing to limited inventories, encouraging the trader's sentiment in the domestic market. By the end of the quarter, improvement in import frequencies from China led to adequate stock in the market, causing the value to be slightly lower. Also, a decrement was seen in the market dynamics due to weak demand and a dull purchasing mood ahead of the Christmas Holiday.
Asia- Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the Aspirin market revealed an assorted sentiment with price fluctuations during the entire fourth quarter of 2022. An increment in Aspirin's price trend was seen in the first half of Q4, with prices settling at USD 5080/MT in November. The halt in production activities during the Golden week vacations in the first week of October resulted in low inventories among domestic retailers, which in turn supported the pricing tendency in the market. Also, the lockdown in Shanghai with rising COVID cases continued to make exports of API unstable. However, the prices started to slip in the second half of Q4 as the downstream pharmaceutical industry's demand flickered with uncertainty in orders, impacting the price trend. Thus, by the quarter ending December, prices of Aspirin were estimated at USD 4880/MT in China.
Europe
During the fourth quarter of 2022, Aspirin witnessed mixed sentiments in Europe. Till November, Aspirin prices in the European market climbed to USD 6375/MT due to lower importing activities from China amidst the Golden week holiday and lockdown restrictions, causing limited inventories in the regional market. However, Aspirin prices in Germany settled at USD 6155/MT, with an immediate decline of 3.4% in December. The market fundamentals in Germany had been hampered by declining demand from the downstream pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, which had caused a price drop. Additionally, domestic merchants had enough inventory to meet demand overall, which resulted in a negative trend by the conclusion of the quarter.
The US Aspirin API market commenced the 3rd quarter of 2022 on a negative note. However, prices started inclining from mid-H1 and declined again in the latter weeks of the quarter. Therefore, continuous fluctuation in price trends was due to numerous factors, such as the unstable supply of inventories in the domestic market and fluttering demand from the end-user pharmaceutical sector. In addition, turbulences in logistic activities, piled-up cargo at the port, and variations in seasonal conditions in the major exporting country, China, affected the Aspirin market. In August and September, speculation about a US recession gained traction as consumer demand hovered and inflation rates for several commodities remained uncertain. As a ripple effect, the Aspirin API prices for CFR Los Angeles settled at USD 5350/MT in September 2022.
In the Asia Pacific region, the Aspirin API price trend showcased a downward trajectory during H1 of Q3 2022, with FOB prices settling at USD 4480/MT in August 2022. This trend was influenced by declining feedstock prices such as Acetic Anhydride and Salicyclic Acid. However, a depreciating demand for Aspirin API in the domestic market and slow offtakes from end-user pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors resulted in bearish market sentiments. Moreover, new policies and stringent COVID protocols have contributed to the declining price trend. As H2 of Q3 approached, an improvement was seen in the market dynamics of Aspirin API, with prices inclined to USD 4650/MT. Therefore, rising demand and a positive buyer mood from the downstream sectors kept the price trend upward.
Aspirin API showcased a fluctuating price movement in the European market during the third quarter of 2022, resembling the price trend of the Asian and North American markets. In July, the lack of inquiries from the downstream pharmaceutical sector dampened the market sentiments for Aspirin API in the German domestic market. However, in August, higher Aspirin API prices were driven by logistical issues and scarcity of supply. Additionally, China's import activities to Germany were unstable due to various factors, such as frequent lockdowns, plant shutdowns, and high-temperature maintenance. Therefore, traders were ready to bargain over the purchases as fear of recession loomed from late August to the last week of September. Thus, the Aspirin API prices in Germany were settled at USD 5865/MT by the end of the quarter.
