For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, butadiene prices in the North American market exhibited a largely stagnant to slightly declining trend, shaped by a confluence of weak downstream demand, stable supply, and broader economic headwinds. Despite an uptick in new vehicle sales during late 2024, the automotive sector—the primary consumer of butadiene for tire and synthetic rubber production—faced persistent challenges from high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and rising competition from international brands. These factors continued to suppress demand, curbing any significant price momentum heading into the new year.
Throughout the quarter, supply levels remained consistent with no major production disruptions or refinery shutdowns. However, indirect upward pressure from elevated crude oil prices—driven by geopolitical uncertainties—moderately influenced production costs. Even so, stable domestic output and imports helped balance the market, preventing sharp price swings.
On the demand side, year-end destocking and a subdued start to the quarter kept procurement activity limited. The holiday season slowdown, along with ongoing caution in the automotive and rubber sectors, reinforced a conservative purchasing approach among market participants. Although some optimism for recovery was tied to post-Lunar New Year demand, it had yet to materialize meaningfully within the quarter.
Overall, the butadiene market in North America remained in a low-demand environment, with pricing largely unchanged from the beginning of the year. Market sentiment stayed cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainties, limiting any significant price recovery through Q1.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the butadiene market in Malaysia displayed a fluctuating yet relatively stable trend, recovering from a sharp 14.5% decline in December. The quarter began with a marginal dip in prices, driven by subdued demand from the automotive and synthetic rubber sectors, particularly NBR. Regional oversupply, especially from Singapore, exerted further downward pressure.
Mid-quarter, prices saw a moderate increase due to tightening supply and improved sentiment in neighbouring markets like India and Singapore. Despite sluggish downstream demand, procurement activity picked up as buyers anticipated future supply constraints, particularly for ABS and PBR.
However, the latter part of the quarter was marked by overall price stability. Butadiene prices remained largely unchanged as supply remained consistent and derivative demand varied. While ABS and PBR showed modest gains linked to automotive sector recovery, demand for other rubbers like NBR and SBR remained steady or muted.
Overall, Q1 closed with a cautiously balanced outlook. Stable supply and moderate derivative demand kept price volatility in check, though macroeconomic uncertainties and fluctuating trade dynamics continued to influence market sentiment across the region.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European butadiene market exhibited a moderately positive trend, recovering from a 6.24% decline in the previous quarter. The market began cautiously, with stable prices supported by steady supply and improving demand from the synthetic rubber sector, particularly SBR.
Mid-quarter, prices surged by over 10%, driven by strong demand for derivatives such as ABS, PBR, and SBR. This uptick was linked to increased automotive production and export orders. Despite a decline in feedstock naphtha prices lowering production costs, tight domestic supply pushed prices upward. Geopolitical tensions and logistical constraints added complexity but did not significantly disrupt supply.
Later in the quarter, the market experienced a slight correction. Prices stabilized initially, supported by consistent demand for ABS and NBR, but softened as derivative trends became more mixed—while SBR demand remained firm, PBR and NBR showed weakness. Rising feedstock prices added cost pressure.
Overall, Q1 reflected a balanced recovery supported by demand strength, disciplined supply, and favourable macroeconomic shifts. The market ended the quarter with cautious optimism, with stability or further growth expected depending on downstream recovery and geopolitical developments.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Butadiene market in the North American region, especially USA, experienced a downward price trend throughout Q4 2024.Weak market conditions and cautious market behavior dominated Q4. Sluggish automotive sales—a major driver of butadiene demand—were a key factor. High inventory levels throughout the quarter exerted significant downward pressure on prices, with manufacturers and traders adopting destocking strategies. Despite elevated crude oil and naphtha prices, these cost increases were not fully reflected in butadiene production prices, further contributing to the price decline. The holiday season in December further reduced demand and procurement activity.
The downturn in Butadiene market stemmed from several key factors: Sluggish automotive sales significantly reduced demand. High inventory levels forced destocking, lowering prices. Elevated crude oil and naphtha costs weren't fully reflected in butadiene prices, adding to the pressure. Geopolitical uncertainties and the year-end holiday season further dampened demand and procurement activity. These combined factors created a challenging market environment characterized by oversupply and price erosion. The quarter ended with Butadiene CFR USGC priced at USD 987/MT.
The persistent oversupply, weak demand from the automotive sector, and geopolitical uncertainties created a challenging environment for butadiene market participants in Q4 2024. Maintaining profitability amidst declining prices and high inventory levels presented a significant hurdle. The lack of substantial price increases despite rising raw material costs also posed financial challenges.
APAC
The APAC butadiene market, particularly in China, experienced a challenging Q4 2024, marked by declining prices and subdued demand. This contrasts sharply with previous quarters, which saw more robust activity. The primary driver of the downturn was weak downstream demand. Key consumers like the tire and synthetic rubber industries showed cautious purchasing behavior, fueled by weak consumer sentiment and economic uncertainty. The automotive sector, while showing some growth in new energy vehicles, didn't generate sufficient butadiene demand to offset the overall weakness. An oversupply situation, exacerbated by the restart of several production units in China (such as the Tianjin plant) and high port inventories in East China, further depressed prices. Importantly, South Korea's reduced export volumes and active destocking in China significantly impacted December's price drop.
Several factors contributed to the market's state. Falling crude oil prices weakened the cost support for butadiene production. The continued weak demand from key downstream sectors and the overall subdued economic climate in China played a significant role. The increase in domestic production in some exporting countries also lessened reliance on imports.
Market participants faced significant challenges due to these developments. Producers experienced reduced profitability due to lower prices. Buyers, though benefiting from lower prices, faced uncertainty regarding future supply and pricing. The overall market sentiment was pessimistic, with a "wait-and-see" attitude prevailing among buyers and producers alike. The quarter ended with the price of Butadiene CFR Qingdao in China at USD 1205/MT.
Europe
The European butadiene market, particularly in Germany, experienced a challenging Q4 2024, characterized by persistent price declines and subdued demand. The automotive industry, a major consumer of butadiene (via synthetic rubber for tires), experienced a substantial contraction due to weak demand, shrinking margins, and economic uncertainty. The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) further complicated the situation, as did new tariffs imposed by the US on German carmakers. This reduced demand for butyl rubber, a key downstream product, directly impacting butadiene consumption. The broader European economy also played a role, with weakening business confidence and reduced industrial output limiting procurement. High inventory levels further added to downward pressure on prices.
Butadiene prices in Germany exhibited a consistent downward trajectory throughout Q4. October saw a decline due to high product availability and weak downstream demand. November witnessed further price drops, driven by the contraction in the automotive sector and broader economic uncertainty. December continued this negative trend, with reduced sales in the rubber sector and reduced tire production leading to even weaker demand.
Market participants faced substantial challenges. Producers struggled with reduced profitability due to lower prices and weak demand. Buyers, while benefiting from lower costs, faced uncertainty in the market, with the potential for further price drops. The overall market sentiment was pessimistic, with a lack of confidence in a short-term recovery. The quarter ended with Butadiene priced at USD 1041/MT FD Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, Butadiene prices in North America experienced a consistent uptrend, particularly in the USA, where the most significant price changes were observed.
Various factors influenced this price rise, including strong demand from the downstream Synthetic rubber and Polymer industry, limited supplies due to operational constraints and production halts, and increased costs supported by rising feedstock Butane prices. These conditions created a positive pricing environment, with prices increasing by 106% compared to the same quarter last year.
In the USA specifically, prices saw a 2% increase from the previous quarter in 2024 and a notable 6% difference between the first and second halves of the quarter. This upward trend was driven by moderate demand, plant shutdowns, and supply chain disruptions caused by factors such as Hurricane Beryl. U.S. West Coast ports, including Los Angeles and Long Beach, had prepared for an influx of imports due to strong consumer demand and the potential for labor disruptions on the East and Gulf coasts.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the Butadiene market in the APAC region experienced a significant decrease in prices. This decline can be attributed to a combination of factors such as muted demand from downstream industries, limited supply due to production halt, and decreased feedstock Naphtha prices. The market sentiment has been predominantly negative, with prices facing downward pressure throughout the quarter. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes during this period. The overall trend in prices for Butadiene in Japan reflected the regional sentiment, with a strong correlation in the price changes. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices have decreased by 55%, indicating a substantial shift in market conditions. Additionally, the quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9% further highlights the downward trajectory of prices. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a slight decrease of 1%. Growing concerns about declining demand for energy commodities further placed downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the demand for Butadiene from the downstream Synthetic Rubber and Polymer sectors remained weak, with market participants reporting few new orders during this period. However, the supply of Butadiene stayed constrained due to low domestic operating rates and decreased import offers from Singapore and other exporting markets, though this had a minimal effect on Butadiene prices.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a notable upward trend in Butadiene prices, with the Netherlands experiencing the most significant price fluctuations. Several key factors contributed to this price surge. Firstly, supply constraints, stemming from reduced imports and low domestic production rates, tightened market availability. Additionally, rising freight rates and logistical challenges further pressured prices upward. Weak demand from downstream industries, such as synthetic rubber and polymer, contrasted with the limited supply, exacerbating the price increase.
Compared to the same quarter last year, Butadiene prices saw a substantial 72% increase, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics. Additionally, there had been a perception that the supply tightness would persist, as some plants were either shut down for unplanned maintenance or were expected to begin planned turnarounds before or during October. On the other hand, spot demand for Butadiene had increased, driven by replenishment activity ahead of the turnaround season in the upstream Naphtha market. Sellers had held a glimmer of hope for an increase in demand by the end of September and into October, which had helped ease concerns about weak buying interest.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, Butadiene prices have significantly risen across the US market supported by improved demand dynamics and limited inventories. The cost support from feedstock Butane was sufficient for Butadiene as its prices settled on the higher end, leading to bullish market sentiment toward Butadiene among the manufacturers. On the demand front, despite the high mortgage rates the inquiries from the downstream Synthetic rubber and Polymer industry have increased due to a rise in consumption from the construction sector, contributing to an upward shift in the price realization of Butadiene across the domestic market.
As per the market sources, new residential construction in the US rebounded in the month of April although the report also unexpectedly showed a continued decrease in building permits. Additionally, housing starts surged by 5.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.360 million in April after dropping by 16.8 percent to a revised rate of 1.287 million in March. On the other hand, consumer prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed its downward trend at the start of the second quarter in a boost to financial market expectations for a September interest rate cut. In addition, the availability of Butadiene was limited due to low domestic production and slow imports from the Asian market which further uplifted the prices of Butadiene.
At the same time, Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North American west and east coasts have seen a notable increase, with rates rising by approximately 10%. This increase is in line with the general upward trend observed since the beginning of the month, keeping the prices upward. Thus, prices of Butadiene CFR USGC were settled at USD 1257/MT during June 2024. Meanwhile, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has reported that tightening emissions standards for Butadiene monomer at all plants in the US. This will likely increase costs and therefore drive up the Butadiene prices further.
Asia-Pacific
Butadiene prices have witnessed mixed sentiments in the Asia-Pacific market during the second quarter of 2024. During the first half of Q2 of 2024, Butadiene prices have inched higher in the Singaporean market supported by soaring energy and feedstock prices coupled with tight supply in the domestic market. The market player reported that the feedstock Naphtha prices increased throughout the past month which in turn resulted in the high production cost of Butadiene in the domestic market. On the demand side, the inquiries from the downstream Synthetic rubber mainly NBR, PBR, and SBR as well as from the polymer (ABS) industry have increased as consumption from the automotive and construction sector has recovered this week which lifted the prices of Butadiene in the domestic market. At the same time, the inquiries from the overseas market have also increased in an effort to restock the inventories, keeping the prices elevated. Furthermore, the operating rates have remained under pressure, resulting in the low material availability in the domestic market which supported the prices following an uptrend in the domestic market. However, Butadiene prices have declined in the second half of Q2 of 2024 owing to the weak cost support from the feedstock Naphtha. The demand from the downstream Synthetic rubber and Polymer industry has eased during the quarter as consumption from the key end-user automotive and construction sector was below seasonal expectations which weighed down the prices of Butadiene in the domestic market.
Europe
Butadiene prices have been on a firm note across the German market during the second quarter of 2024. Tightening supply conditions were the main driver behind the price rise, even though demand remained under pressure from economic challenges. However, feedstock Naphtha prices have been observed on the lower end throughout the quarter, though it had a minimal impact on the prices of Butadiene in the domestic market. In addition, the operating rates have remained low since Q1 of 2024 in response to a decline in downstream demand, leading to the limited availability of Butadiene in the domestic market. Additionally, outages at Total Energies’ Gonfreville site which has a Butadiene capacity of 60,000 MT/Year, and LyondellBasell Berre facility which has a capacity of 80,000 MT/Year, resulted in the supply shortage in the domestic market. At the same time, import prices have reached their highest levels as longer transit times and high shipping costs stemming from the Red Sea attack caused a series of notable hikes. Additionally, spot ocean freight charges from Asia to Europe surged well ahead of contract rates as vessel capacity tightened even more owing to the ongoing Red Sea crisis. As per the market sources, freight charges from Asia to North Europe were settled at $4,000/FEU, following adverse weather and congestion at Chinese ports. On the macroeconomic front, the annual inflation rate in Germany edged up to 2.4% in May 2024, compared to a three-year low of 2.2% in each of the previous two months. The firm inflationary pressure has further dampened consumer buying sentiments. However, the underlying demand for Butadiene from the downstream Synthetic rubber and Polymer industry was soft and stable amid the weak macroeconomic climate. Thus, as a ripple effect price of Butadiene FD Hamburg were settled at USD 1162/MT during June 2024.
