For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The butadiene spot price in the US dropped to USD 865/tonne in early Q2, reflecting a declining price index since May.
• Price index decreased in July 2025, largely due to ongoing weakness in demand for synthetic rubbers such as NBR and SBR.
• A sharp 10% y-o-y rise in US. car sales in April were short-lived; demand cooled in July following the tariff-driven pre-buying spree.
• The butadiene demand outlook remains bearish as automotive and industrial sectors slow, and no strong recovery is visible in non-auto applications.
• The butadiene production cost trend turned negative with falling naphtha and crude oil prices offering little cost support.
• Despite steady operating rates and balanced inventories, weak downstream pull from PBR and abs restrained upward momentum.
• Ongoing US. –China tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on trade sentiment, keeping procurement strategies cautious.
• The butadiene price forecast suggests prices will likely remain flat to mildly bearish unless feedstock costs rise or demand rebounds significantly.
Asia-Pacific
• The Butadiene Spot Price dropped on CFR Busan basis in early Q2 from USD 990/tonne in May, indicating a weakened Price Index.
• Price Index decreased in Q2 2025, primarily due to muted downstream demand in PBR, SBR, and NBR sectors.
• South Korea’s Hyundai chemical EV plant shutdown through may created temporary tightness, but imports from China and the US filled the gap.
• The butadiene demand outlook was weak as domestic automotive production declined seasonally, and export demand remained soft.
• Despite a rise in upstream crude oil and naphtha, downstream derivative prices didn’t respond, pressuring margins.
• Butadiene production cost trend was undercut by falling naphtha prices in may, which continued to erode margins in July.
• ABS showed modest resilience while other rubber-based derivatives continued their downtrend, reflecting sector-specific divergences.
• The Butadiene Price Forecast remains bearish to neutral for Q3 2025 due to soft demand, improving supply, and no clear recovery in downstream applications.
Europe
• The Butadiene Spot Price decreased to USD 890/tonne in early Q2, after dropping from USD 1092/tonne in April; the Price Index showed mixed trends.
• Price Index moved marginally higher in July 2025, supported by seasonal auto sales and tight port logistics, but gains were capped by weak derivatives.
• ABS and PBR held steady while NBR and SBR declined, highlighting uneven performance in downstream sectors.
• The Butadiene Demand Outlook stayed tepid, as the European automotive industry struggled with seasonal softness and export challenges.
• Congestion at Hamburg port worsened due to terminal relocation and automation work, raising transit times and creating logistical pressures.
• The Butadiene Production Cost Trend remained soft, with stagnant naphtha and only mild recovery in crude oil offering limited cost support.
• U.S. tariff threats on European goods added uncertainty, discouraging production growth in automotive and rubber sectors.
• The Butadiene Price Forecast is cautiously optimistic for summer, but real gains will depend on resolving supply chain bottlenecks and improving derivative demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
• Butadiene Price Index in North America showed stagnation to a slight decline in Q1 2025. By the end of quarter, the price of Butadiene settled at USD 1094/MT on a CFR USGC.
Why did the price of Butadiene change in April 2025 in the US?
Prices remained largely declined in April due to weak downstream demand and macroeconomic pressures. While crude oil volatility raised Butadiene Production Cost Trend, stable domestic production prevented any significant upward price movement.
• Despite new vehicle sales improving in late 2024, the automotive sector (key end-use for butadiene spot price) continued to struggle with high interest rates and inflation, limiting consumption.
• Butadiene Demand Outlook remained subdued with minimal procurement activity due to cautious sentiment in the rubber and tire industries.
• Imports and domestic production were steady throughout the quarter, with no major shutdowns or disruptions reported.
• The Butadiene Price Forecast for the coming quarter remains uncertain, with slow recovery expected unless macroeconomic conditions improve.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• The Butadiene Price Index in the APAC region (notably Malaysia, Singapore, and India) was marked by fluctuations but remained relatively stable overall.
Why did the price of Butadiene change in April 2025 in the Asia?
Prices in early Q1 saw a marginal dip due to oversupply and weak synthetic rubber demand. However, in April, prices rose moderately as buyers anticipated tighter availability in Q2, driving procurement activity.
• Mid-quarter gains in butadiene spot price were linked to improved sentiment in India and Singapore, especially for ABS and PBR.
• Despite a consistent Butadiene Production Cost Trend, price gains were contained due to uneven recovery in derivative demand, particularly from NBR and SBR sectors.
• End of Q1 saw stabilization in the market, with Butadiene Demand Outlook improving slightly due to seasonal automotive production uptick.
• The Butadiene Price Forecast is cautiously optimistic, with anticipated summer demand and continued trade dynamics playing a pivotal role.
Europe
• The Butadiene Price Index in Europe reflected a moderate recovery, particularly from February onward.
Why did the price of Butadiene change in April 2025 in the Europe?
Prices in April remained firm after a significant March increase, supported by strong derivative demand, especially for ABS, PBR, and SBR.
• The mid-quarter rally in butadiene spot price was driven by rising automotive production and tighter supply, despite lower feedstock naphtha prices reducing the Butadiene Production Cost Trend.
• Later in the quarter, prices corrected slightly as mixed trends in downstream markets created uncertainty—SBR remained strong while PBR and NBR weakened.
• Butadiene Demand Outlook in Europe is supported by continued export orders and automotive output, though geopolitical tensions and logistical constraints remain a concern.
• The Butadiene Price Forecast for Q2 suggests cautious optimism, with potential for stable or slightly higher pricing based on derivative market resilience.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Butadiene market in the North American region, especially USA, experienced a downward price trend throughout Q4 2024.Weak market conditions and cautious market behavior dominated Q4. Sluggish automotive sales—a major driver of butadiene demand—were a key factor. High inventory levels throughout the quarter exerted significant downward pressure on prices, with manufacturers and traders adopting destocking strategies. Despite elevated crude oil and naphtha prices, these cost increases were not fully reflected in butadiene production prices, further contributing to the price decline. The holiday season in December further reduced demand and procurement activity.
The downturn in Butadiene market stemmed from several key factors: Sluggish automotive sales significantly reduced demand. High inventory levels forced destocking, lowering prices. Elevated crude oil and naphtha costs weren't fully reflected in butadiene prices, adding to the pressure. Geopolitical uncertainties and the year-end holiday season further dampened demand and procurement activity. These combined factors created a challenging market environment characterized by oversupply and price erosion. The quarter ended with Butadiene CFR USGC priced at USD 987/MT.
The persistent oversupply, weak demand from the automotive sector, and geopolitical uncertainties created a challenging environment for butadiene market participants in Q4 2024. Maintaining profitability amidst declining prices and high inventory levels presented a significant hurdle. The lack of substantial price increases despite rising raw material costs also posed financial challenges.
APAC
The APAC butadiene market, particularly in China, experienced a challenging Q4 2024, marked by declining prices and subdued demand. This contrasts sharply with previous quarters, which saw more robust activity. The primary driver of the downturn was weak downstream demand. Key consumers like the tire and synthetic rubber industries showed cautious purchasing behavior, fueled by weak consumer sentiment and economic uncertainty. The automotive sector, while showing some growth in new energy vehicles, didn't generate sufficient butadiene demand to offset the overall weakness. An oversupply situation, exacerbated by the restart of several production units in China (such as the Tianjin plant) and high port inventories in East China, further depressed prices. Importantly, South Korea's reduced export volumes and active destocking in China significantly impacted December's price drop.
Several factors contributed to the market's state. Falling crude oil prices weakened the cost support for butadiene production. The continued weak demand from key downstream sectors and the overall subdued economic climate in China played a significant role. The increase in domestic production in some exporting countries also lessened reliance on imports.
Market participants faced significant challenges due to these developments. Producers experienced reduced profitability due to lower prices. Buyers, though benefiting from lower prices, faced uncertainty regarding future supply and pricing. The overall market sentiment was pessimistic, with a "wait-and-see" attitude prevailing among buyers and producers alike. The quarter ended with the price of Butadiene CFR Qingdao in China at USD 1205/MT.
Europe
The European butadiene market, particularly in Germany, experienced a challenging Q4 2024, characterized by persistent price declines and subdued demand. The automotive industry, a major consumer of butadiene (via synthetic rubber for tires), experienced a substantial contraction due to weak demand, shrinking margins, and economic uncertainty. The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) further complicated the situation, as did new tariffs imposed by the US on German carmakers. This reduced demand for butyl rubber, a key downstream product, directly impacting butadiene consumption. The broader European economy also played a role, with weakening business confidence and reduced industrial output limiting procurement. High inventory levels further added to downward pressure on prices.
Butadiene prices in Germany exhibited a consistent downward trajectory throughout Q4. October saw a decline due to high product availability and weak downstream demand. November witnessed further price drops, driven by the contraction in the automotive sector and broader economic uncertainty. December continued this negative trend, with reduced sales in the rubber sector and reduced tire production leading to even weaker demand.
Market participants faced substantial challenges. Producers struggled with reduced profitability due to lower prices and weak demand. Buyers, while benefiting from lower costs, faced uncertainty in the market, with the potential for further price drops. The overall market sentiment was pessimistic, with a lack of confidence in a short-term recovery. The quarter ended with Butadiene priced at USD 1041/MT FD Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, Butadiene prices in North America experienced a consistent uptrend, particularly in the USA, where the most significant price changes were observed.
Various factors influenced this price rise, including strong demand from the downstream Synthetic rubber and Polymer industry, limited supplies due to operational constraints and production halts, and increased costs supported by rising feedstock Butane prices. These conditions created a positive pricing environment, with prices increasing by 106% compared to the same quarter last year.
In the USA specifically, prices saw a 2% increase from the previous quarter in 2024 and a notable 6% difference between the first and second halves of the quarter. This upward trend was driven by moderate demand, plant shutdowns, and supply chain disruptions caused by factors such as Hurricane Beryl. U.S. West Coast ports, including Los Angeles and Long Beach, had prepared for an influx of imports due to strong consumer demand and the potential for labor disruptions on the East and Gulf coasts.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the Butadiene market in the APAC region experienced a significant decrease in prices. This decline can be attributed to a combination of factors such as muted demand from downstream industries, limited supply due to production halt, and decreased feedstock Naphtha prices. The market sentiment has been predominantly negative, with prices facing downward pressure throughout the quarter. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes during this period. The overall trend in prices for Butadiene in Japan reflected the regional sentiment, with a strong correlation in the price changes. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices have decreased by 55%, indicating a substantial shift in market conditions. Additionally, the quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9% further highlights the downward trajectory of prices. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a slight decrease of 1%. Growing concerns about declining demand for energy commodities further placed downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the demand for Butadiene from the downstream Synthetic Rubber and Polymer sectors remained weak, with market participants reporting few new orders during this period. However, the supply of Butadiene stayed constrained due to low domestic operating rates and decreased import offers from Singapore and other exporting markets, though this had a minimal effect on Butadiene prices.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a notable upward trend in Butadiene prices, with the Netherlands experiencing the most significant price fluctuations. Several key factors contributed to this price surge. Firstly, supply constraints, stemming from reduced imports and low domestic production rates, tightened market availability. Additionally, rising freight rates and logistical challenges further pressured prices upward. Weak demand from downstream industries, such as synthetic rubber and polymer, contrasted with the limited supply, exacerbating the price increase.
Compared to the same quarter last year, Butadiene prices saw a substantial 72% increase, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics. Additionally, there had been a perception that the supply tightness would persist, as some plants were either shut down for unplanned maintenance or were expected to begin planned turnarounds before or during October. On the other hand, spot demand for Butadiene had increased, driven by replenishment activity ahead of the turnaround season in the upstream Naphtha market. Sellers had held a glimmer of hope for an increase in demand by the end of September and into October, which had helped ease concerns about weak buying interest.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1. What is the current price of Butadiene in major regions?
o USA: USD 865/tonne
o South Korea: USD 1145/tonne CFR Busan
o Germany: USD 890/tonne
2. Who are the top Butadiene producers in the United States?
o Major producers include TPC Group, LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil, and Shell Chemicals.
3. What is the Butadiene Price Forecast for Q3 2025?
o Prices are forecast to remain flat to slightly bearish across regions due to weak downstream rubber and polymer demand.
4. How do feedstock trends influence Butadiene pricing?
o Butadiene Production Cost Trend is highly dependent on naphtha and crude oil prices. As these feedstocks soften, it lowers cost support, often pushing Butadiene prices down.
