For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Cellulose Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Cellulose Price Index fell in Q4 2025, driven by softened downstream pulp and paper demand.
- Cellulose production costs faced upward pressure from a 3.0% year-over-year PPI increase in November 2025.
- General inflation, indicated by a 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase in December 2025, impacted Cellulose production costs.
- Industrial production increased 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, bolstering Cellulose demand in industrial applications.
- Retail sales rose 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, supporting Cellulose demand for consumer goods packaging.
- New pulp capacity continued to come online globally in Q4 2025, easing overall Cellulose supply constraints.
- A 4.4% unemployment rate in December 2025 indicated a tight labor market, potentially increasing Cellulose labor costs.
- Consumer confidence declined in December 2025, potentially impacting discretionary Cellulose end-use demand.
Why did the price of Cellulose change in December 2025 in North America?
- Downstream pulp and paper demand softened in Q4 2025, reducing overall Cellulose consumption.
- New pulp capacity came online globally in Q4 2025, increasing supply availability for Cellulose.
- Caustic soda feedstock costs weakened in Q4 2025, easing some Cellulose production expenses.
Cellulose Prices in APAC
- In China, the Cellulose Price Index declined quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by weak consumer and producer prices.
- The Cellulose Price Forecast indicates stable to declining trends due to subdued demand in Q4 2025.
- Cellulose Production Cost Trends showed imported hardwood pulp feedstock costs gained significantly in Q4 2025.
- Cellulose Demand Outlook weakened in Q4 2025, with retail sales growth at 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025.
- China's Manufacturing Index expanded in December 2025, and industrial production increased by 5.2% year-on-year.
- Pulp port inventories exhibited a narrow destocking trend in November 2025, tightening market supply.
- New pulp capacity continued to come online in Q4 2025, contributing to easing overall supply constraints.
- China's wood pulp imports continued overall volume growth through November 2025, supporting raw material availability.
- Textile and apparel export activity was gradually boosted by tariff negotiations during Q4 2025.
Why did the price of Cellulose change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer demand, indicated by low CPI (0.8%) in December 2025, dampened end-user consumption.
- Negative PPI (-1.9%) in December 2025 reflected falling producer prices and weak industrial demand.
- Subdued operating rates in the paper and pulp industry in Q4 2025 highlighted structural overcapacity.
Cellulose Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Cellulose Price Index experienced downward pressure quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by falling producer prices.
- Cellulose production costs saw downward pressure in December 2025 due to a 2.5% year-on-year decrease in producer prices.
- However, wholesale electricity prices in Germany remained elevated throughout Q4 2025, impacting overall Cellulose production expenses.
- Industrial demand for Cellulose showed modest growth in October 2025, with industrial production increasing by 0.8% year-on-year.
- Consumer-driven Cellulose demand saw a modest rise in November 2025, as real retail sales increased by 1.1% year-on-year.
- Overall Cellulose demand faced headwinds in December 2025 as the Manufacturing Index showed a contracting trend.
- Consumer confidence remained significantly pessimistic at -17.5 index in December 2025, dampening discretionary spending for cellulose products.
- German exports remained elevated in October 2025, driven by more dynamic EU demand, supporting Cellulose trade flows.
Why did the price of Cellulose change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices declined by 2.5% year-on-year in December 2025, reducing Cellulose production costs.
- The Manufacturing Index showed a contracting trend in December 2025, signaling weaker industrial demand.
- Consumer confidence was significantly pessimistic at -17.5 index in December 2025, impacting consumer spending.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
Cellulose Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Cellulose Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increasing feedstock costs.
- Cellulose production costs increased due to wood pulp PPI rising 0.55% in August 2025 and higher cotton prices.
- The Cellulose demand outlook was mixed, as US construction spending fell 2.85% year-over-year in Q3 2025.
- Industrial production expanded 0.1% month-over-month in September 2025, providing some support to overall demand.
- National commercial cotton inventories decreased 20% year-on-year by August 2025, tightening feedstock supply.
- US export sales of cotton were low in September 2025, influenced by extended trade duty pauses with China.
- The Producer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025, indicating broader inflationary pressures on production.
Why did the price of Cellulose change in September 2025 in North America?
- Production costs increased due to rising wood pulp PPI and higher cotton prices in Q3 2025.
- Demand was tempered by a 2.85% year-over-year decline in US construction spending in Q3 2025.
- Reduced national cotton inventories by 20% year-on-year in August 2025 tightened feedstock supply.
Cellulose Prices in APAC
- In China, the Cellulose Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining pulp feedstock costs and producer prices.
- Cellulose production costs trended downwards due to a moderate decline in Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft spot prices in Q3 2025.
- Softwood pulp reference prices in Shandong decreased in September 2025, further contributing to lower production expenses.
- Asian containerboard and boxboard demand is projected to grow by 3.9% and 3.3% respectively in 2025, boosting Cellulose consumption.
- Industrial production expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating robust manufacturing activity supporting demand.
- China's Cellulose exports increased by 4.2% from July to August 2025, while imports decreased by 3.59% in the same period.
- Pulp inventories at mainstream Chinese ports showed a narrow destocking trend in September 2025, decreasing by 0.2%.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in September 2025, reflecting overall economic output growth, which positively impacts industrial demand.
- Retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, supporting packaging demand and the shift to paper-based products.
Why did the price of Cellulose change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Producer prices decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reducing overall manufacturing input costs.
- Consumer prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, contributing to a general deflationary environment.
Cellulose Prices in Europe
- In Germany, Cellulose Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining industrial production.
- Cellulose production costs trended lower in Q3 2025, supported by a 5.7% year-on-year decline in natural gas prices.
- Cellulose demand outlook remains subdued; construction output decreased 2.20% year-on-year in September 2025.
- New orders in German factories fell 3.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, impacting Cellulose demand.
- Exports from German factories dropped 5.2% in Q3 2025, indicating weaker external Cellulose demand.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased 1.7% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting broader deflationary pressures.
- Industrial production in Germany was down 1.0% year-on-year in September 2025, reducing Cellulose consumption.
- The Cellulose Price Index is forecast to remain stable or decline, driven by weak demand and lower input costs.
Why did the price of Cellulose change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Industrial production in Germany decreased 1.0% year-on-year in September 2025, curbing demand.
- Construction output in Germany fell 2.20% year-on-year in September 2025, affecting end-use sectors.
- Producer prices for industrial products were 1.7% lower year-on-year in September 2025, easing cost pressures.
