For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America (USA)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in the USA stayed range-bound through Q2 2025, tracking Henry Hub natural gas, which averaged USD 3.696/MMBtu Ex Louisiana, down 7% from Q1 as mild spring weather and weak industrial demand weighed on prices.
• The Hydrogen Spot Price dipped in April–May alongside softer gas demand, before recovering in June as persistent heatwaves boosted cooling loads and LNG feedgas volumes, tightening supply.
• Why did the Hydrogen price rise entering July 2025? Hot weather across the South and Midwest, along with higher LNG exports and lower Canadian imports, lifted gas-linked hydrogen costs despite steady refinery consumption.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 points to moderate upside, driven by strong power-sector gas demand, rising LNG exports, and firm SMR-based production economics.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remains steady, led by refinery desulfurization and fertilizers, while steel and industrial use stay at baseline amid mixed U.S. manufacturing activity.
Europe (Germany)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in Europe mirrored gas trends, as TTF-linked natural gas averaged EUR 36,964/1,000 MWh FD Hamburg in Q2 2025, a 19% drop from Q1 due to mild weather and low LNG terminal utilization before rebounding in June.
• The Hydrogen Spot Price stayed soft through April–May, with lower heating loads, reduced LNG inflows, and weak energy-intensive industries suppressing costs before late-quarter cooling demand lifted gas markets.
• Why did Hydrogen prices enter firm in July 2025? Hot weather, rising power-sector gas demand, and tighter LNG availability boosted feedstock-linked hydrogen costs, aided by backloaded storage activity and geopolitical risks.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 suggests gradual firming, contingent on heat-driven gas demand, EU storage injections, and LNG tightness despite ongoing maintenance at Norway’s Troll field.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook is balanced, with refining and ammonia sectors providing core stability, while chemical and metals-linked hydrogen use remains subdued.
Asia-Pacific (India)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in India averaged USD 337/140 m³ Ex Dahej in Q2 2025, a 0.6% quarterly gain supported by fertilizer and refinery demand despite weak POL exports (down 12.4% YoY).
• The Hydrogen Spot Price held steady as MoPNG maintained the ceiling for domestically produced natural gas at USD 6.75/MMBtu (GCV basis) for ONGC/OIL fields, keeping SMR production costs elevated even as refinery throughput softened.
• Why did the price hold entering July 2025? Consistent ammonia synthesis demand, refinery desulfurization needs, and strategic stockpiling amid Indo Pak tensions offset subdued petrochemical activity.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 indicates stable-to-firm levels near INR 29,400–29,600/140 m³, depending on LNG rates, fertilizer blending activity, and refinery utilization.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remains anchored by refining and fertilizers, with green hydrogen still in early development and minimal influence on conventional hydrogen pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During Q1 2025 and into mid-April, North America's hydrogen market faced downward cost pressure, largely influenced by softening natural gas prices—critical to steam methane reforming (SMR) production. U.S. natural gas prices trended lower overall despite intermittent weather-driven volatility. Mild January temperatures suppressed heating demand, prompting early price drops, while short-lived cold snaps caused temporary rebounds. February brought a modest uptick due to increased residential usage and minor freeze-offs, but warmer conditions by month-end tempered momentum. March added further volatility, with early support from LNG export activity and cool forecasts, yet rising production and storage surpluses reversed gains.
For hydrogen producers reliant on natural gas feedstock, especially SMR-based facilities, the continued weakness in gas prices helped ease production costs. However, these cost savings were not fully matched by demand growth. End-user sectors such as refining and ammonia showed stable offtake, but industrial hydrogen applications remained limited by project delays and economic caution.
Overall, the North American hydrogen market remained well-supplied, with price trends shaped by abundant feedstock, tepid demand expansion, and evolving clean hydrogen policy developments. Without a strong rebound in natural gas or a step-change in demand, hydrogen prices are likely to remain rangebound in the near term.
APAC
Hydrogen prices in India averaged INR 28,700/MT Ex-Mumbai in Q1 2025, marking a 2.5% increase over Q4 2024’s average 15.4% rise year-on-year from Q1 2024. Prices climbed consistently from January to March, supported by elevated natural gas costs and seasonal demand from refineries and fertilizer producers. Production remained stable across SMR-based hydrogen plants, with consistent ammonia supply and refinery operations maintaining output. Government-set domestic gas pricing in March added upward cost pressure, reinforcing bullish market sentiment. Despite global disruptions in ammonia supply, India’s reliance on domestic sourcing mitigated major supply risks. Demand improved notably from refineries and fertilizer sectors. Crude throughput hit 21.6 MMT in February, while urea and ammonia-based fertilizer production increased ahead of the spring sowing season. However, industrial consumption outside these sectors remained modest, and green hydrogen uptake is still in its early stages. With upstream gas input costs rising and industrial hydrogen use firming regionally, especially in western India, Q1 closed on a cautiously optimistic note, hinting at continued price support into Q2.
Europe
During Q1 2025, the European hydrogen market experienced cost-side volatility tied to fluctuating natural gas prices—particularly relevant for SMR-based hydrogen production. In January, gas prices surged sharply amid colder weather and reduced Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine, raising concerns over winter storage drawdowns. However, the rally was short-lived, as milder conditions and stable LNG inflows eased supply fears by mid-month.
February brought renewed uncertainty. Prices dipped temporarily with increased LNG arrivals and easing geopolitical tensions but remained volatile due to tight inventories and ambiguity around EU storage obligations. By March, gas prices declined by over 13%, supported by mild weather and stronger LNG availability, offering some relief to hydrogen producers. Nonetheless, the market remained sensitive to storage levels and global LNG competition.
For hydrogen suppliers, these shifting gas dynamics translated to variable production costs. While lower gas prices in March improved margins, the broader market struggled with underwhelming demand from refining, mobility, and industrial sectors. Unless significant policy-driven demand acceleration materializes, European hydrogen pricing is likely to remain stable but vulnerable to feedstock and geopolitical fluctuations.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, hydrogen prices in the U.S. experienced an upward trend, influenced by rising natural gas prices, as natural gas remains a critical feedstock for hydrogen production. The surge in natural gas costs, driven by strong residential and commercial heating demand during colder weather, constrained supply, and increased LNG exports, directly impacted hydrogen production costs.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly reduced Russian gas supplies, heightened demand for U.S. energy exports, further tightening the market and amplifying feedstock price pressures. Despite stable hydrogen production levels, higher production costs due to elevated natural gas prices and supply-side constraints created upward momentum in hydrogen prices. Additionally, pipeline maintenance and logistical challenges in certain regions added to cost increases.
Demand for hydrogen remained robust across key sectors such as industrial manufacturing and transportation, with the renewable energy transition and decarbonization efforts supporting continued growth in hydrogen adoption. Looking ahead, U.S. hydrogen markets are expected to navigate continued price volatility, with geopolitical factors and natural gas price trends playing critical roles in shaping market dynamics. Increased government incentives for green hydrogen projects and advancements in electrolyzer technologies could mitigate reliance on natural gas, potentially stabilizing costs in the longer term.
APAC
In Q4 2024, India's hydrogen market demonstrated stability, with prices supported by robust domestic production and steady demand, particularly from the fertilizer sector driven by Rabi crop requirements. In December, hydrogen prices held firm, bolstered by reliable plant operations and consistent supply. Despite a slight dip in the Manufacturing PMI in November, the manufacturing sector-maintained resilience, with expanding production and employment levels. Fertilizer sector activity saw mixed trends: while urea demand surged due to seasonal agricultural needs, phosphate prices stabilized amid limited global supply, and potash prices remained steady. However, the market faced challenges, including a shortage of Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) caused by import disruptions and China’s export restrictions. This led to increased reliance on alternative fertilizers like NPK blends. The hydrogen market outlook for 2025 remains positive, driven by expected growth in manufacturing and sustained demand from agricultural applications, though potential headwinds include inflationary pressures and global supply chain uncertainties.
Europe
In Q4 2024, hydrogen prices in Europe experienced upward pressure, largely driven by increasing natural gas prices, as natural gas serves as a key feedstock for hydrogen production. The colder weather in October and November significantly boosted energy demand, particularly in Germany, where natural gas remained essential for heating and power generation. This rise in demand coincided with reduced renewable energy output, especially from wind and solar, which further heightened reliance on hydrogen and gas-fired energy solutions. Geopolitical tensions, especially the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, amplified price volatility, with concerns over potential disruptions to Russian gas supplies impacting the hydrogen supply chain. Europe's growing dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, particularly from the U.S., further constrained availability, as the region competed with Asia for limited cargoes. Although Norway’s gas inflows and stable domestic production provided some relief, lower-than-average gas storage levels added to market uncertainty, increasing production costs for hydrogen. Looking forward, the hydrogen market in Europe faces challenges from elevated feedstock costs and geopolitical risks. However, the push toward green hydrogen projects and policy initiatives aimed at decarbonization may help alleviate long-term price volatility, as investments in renewable-based hydrogen production gain momentum.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Hydrogen market witnessed a significant shift in pricing dynamics, characterized by an upward trajectory. This increase in prices was primarily influenced by a combination of factors contributing to a bullish sentiment.
Supply disruptions, particularly due to weather-related incidents such as hurricanes, alongside strong export demand and fluctuating consumption patterns, played a crucial role in driving market prices higher. The market exhibited signs of tightening as demand surged, especially in the power generation and industrial sectors. This surge in demand, coupled with record exports and growing adoption in various sectors, supported the overall price trend.
Focusing specifically on the USA, the market experienced the most substantial price changes, reflecting the broader North American trend. Despite the negative percentage change from the same quarter last year and the previous quarter in 2024, the second half of the quarter saw a notable increase in prices. Overall, the pricing environment in Q3 2024 can be characterized as positive, with a clear trend of increasing prices across the North American region.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 in the APAC region witnessed a dynamic shift in Hydrogen pricing, marked by a notable increase in prices. Several key factors influenced market prices during this period. Growing geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and heightened global demand set the stage for rising Hydrogen prices. Additionally, increased industrial activity, seasonal fluctuations, and strategic stockpiling efforts further contributed to the upward price trend. Within China, the market experienced the most significant price changes, reflecting broader regional dynamics. Adequate supply from both domestic and international sources is effectively meeting the needs of the downstream industry, with stable factory inventories and a focus on consistent shipments. However, weak demand from downstream sectors has led to a subdued market environment. The correlation between supply and demand, coupled with seasonal variations, played a pivotal role in shaping pricing trends. Despite a year-on-year decrease, the quarter-on-quarter increase showcased a more positive trajectory. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating an increase, highlighted the evolving market conditions. China exemplified the overall bullish sentiment in the Hydrogen pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Hydrogen market in Europe witnessed a notable increase in prices, with various factors influencing this uptrend. Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and concerns about Russian gas supplies, played a significant role in driving prices higher. Additionally, escalating demand from regions like China and the Middle East led to a tightening market, impacting price dynamics. The quarter saw an increase from the previous quarter, reflecting the growing pressures on supply and demand. The market exhibited signs of tightening as demand surged, especially in the power generation and industrial sectors. This surge in demand, coupled with record exports and growing adoption in various sectors, supported the overall price trend. Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes, saw an increase in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. Despite a change from the same quarter last year, the recent surge in prices signals a shifting market landscape. The quarter-ending price for Hydrogen underlining the overall positive trajectory in pricing, driven by a combination of global factors and domestic market conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1. What is the average Hydrogen price for Q2 2025?
USA: tied to natural gas, with Henry Hub at USD 3.696/MMBtu; Europe: EUR 36,964/1,000 MWh FD Hamburg; India: INR 29,167/140 m³ Ex Dahej.
2. Why did Hydrogen prices stabilize or rise entering Q3 2025?
Hot weather, LNG-driven tightness, and firm natural gas costs supported prices in the USA and Europe, while steady fertilizer and refinery demand held Indian pricing firm.
3. Who are the leading Hydrogen producers globally?
Indian Oil, Reliance Industries, NTPC, ONGC, Air Liquide, Linde, and Shell Energy dominate production across India, North America, and Europe.
4. What is the Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 2025?
Prices are projected to stay firm in India, rise modestly in North America and Europe, driven by summer cooling demand, LNG flows, and elevated gas-linked production costs.
