For the Quarter Ending September 2025
APAC
• In India, the Hydrogen Price Index fell by 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
• The average Hydrogen price for the quarter was approximately USD 333.67/MT, reflecting steady refinery feedstock.
• Hydrogen Spot Price stayed rangebound, while Hydrogen Price Index showed limited volatility and steady production.
• Hydrogen Production Cost Trend remained contained as MoPNG gas price ceilings limited feedstock cost escalation.
• Hydrogen Demand Outlook is subdued, supported by steady refinery and fertilizer consumption, limited industrial growth.
• Hydrogen Price Forecast signals rangebound pricing near levels absent significant feedstock disruptions or policy changes.
• High inventories and refinery output pressured offers, while export interest provided support to Price Index.
• Operational reliability at producers limited upside, while green hydrogen project delays tempered longer-term optimism.
Why did the price of Hydrogen change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Balanced refinery throughput and steady domestic feedstock availability kept upward pressure on hydrogen prices minimal.
• MoPNG gas price ceilings constrained production cost rises despite LNG import volatility and rupee-driven effects.
• High inventories, subdued industrial procurement, delays to green hydrogen projects suppressed buying and price upside.
North America
• In the US, hydrogen production remained steady with strong output from refineries and electrolyzer projects.
• Hydrogen Demand Outlook is moderate, supported by petrochemical use and industrial hydrogen adoption.
• Hydrogen Production Cost Trend remained contained due to regulated gas supply and efficient operational processes.
• Infrastructure expansion continued cautiously, with new pipelines and storage projects progressing slowly.
• Operational reliability at producers limited disruptions, while delays in green hydrogen projects constrained new capacity deployment.
• Supply-demand balance was maintained through stable refinery output and strategic reserves.
Why did hydrogen activity change in September 2025 in the USA?
• Stable gas supply and refinery throughput maintained steady production levels.
• Operational reliability at producers kept output consistent.
• Delays in new projects and moderate industrial uptake tempered growth in hydrogen activity.
Europe
• In Germany, hydrogen production remained stable due to consistent renewable energy supply and natural gas availability.
• Hydrogen demand was steady, supported by industrial and mobility applications, while large-scale projects advanced cautiously.
• Hydrogen Production Cost Trend remained contained due to regulated electricity tariffs and pipeline access agreements.
• Hydrogen Demand Outlook is moderate, with steady consumption in refineries and chemical plants offsetting slower uptake in transport.
• Operational reliability at major producers was strong, while delays in new electrolyzer deployments tempered growth expectations.
• Storage capacity and high inventories balanced market pressures, while cross-border hydrogen trade supported supply stability.
Why did hydrogen activity change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Consistent renewable and natural gas availability supported stable production.
• Operational reliability at major producers maintained output despite project delays.
• Steady industrial consumption and cross-border trade moderated fluctuations in activity.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America (USA)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in the USA stayed range-bound through Q2 2025, tracking Henry Hub natural gas, which averaged USD 3.696/MMBtu Ex Louisiana, down 7% from Q1 as mild spring weather and weak industrial demand weighed on prices.
• The Hydrogen Spot Price dipped in April–May alongside softer gas demand, before recovering in June as persistent heatwaves boosted cooling loads and LNG feedgas volumes, tightening supply.
• Why did the Hydrogen price rise entering July 2025?
• Hot weather across the South and Midwest, along with higher LNG exports and lower Canadian imports, lifted gas-linked hydrogen costs despite steady refinery consumption.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 points to moderate upside, driven by strong power-sector gas demand, rising LNG exports, and firm SMR-based production economics.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remains steady, led by refinery desulfurization and fertilizers, while steel and industrial use stay at baseline amid mixed U.S. manufacturing activity.
Europe (Germany)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in Europe mirrored gas trends, as TTF-linked natural gas averaged EUR 36,964/1,000 MWh FD Hamburg in Q2 2025, a 19% drop from Q1 due to mild weather and low LNG terminal utilization before rebounding in June.
• The Hydrogen Spot Price stayed soft through April–May, with lower heating loads, reduced LNG inflows, and weak energy-intensive industries suppressing costs before late-quarter cooling demand lifted gas markets.
• Why did Hydrogen prices enter firm in July 2025?
• Hot weather, rising power-sector gas demand, and tighter LNG availability boosted feedstock-linked hydrogen costs, aided by backloaded storage activity and geopolitical risks.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 suggests gradual firming, contingent on heat-driven gas demand, EU storage injections, and LNG tightness despite ongoing maintenance at Norway’s Troll field.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook is balanced, with refining and ammonia sectors providing core stability, while chemical and metals-linked hydrogen use remains subdued.
Asia-Pacific (India)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in India averaged USD 337/140 m³ Ex Dahej in Q2 2025, a 0.6% quarterly gain supported by fertilizer and refinery demand despite weak POL exports (down 12.4% YoY).
• The Hydrogen Spot Price held steady as MoPNG maintained the ceiling for domestically produced natural gas at USD 6.75/MMBtu (GCV basis) for ONGC/OIL fields, keeping SMR production costs elevated even as refinery throughput softened.
• Why did the price hold entering July 2025?
• Consistent ammonia synthesis demand, refinery desulfurization needs, and strategic stockpiling amid Indo Pak tensions offset subdued petrochemical activity.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 indicates stable-to-firm levels near INR 29,400–29,600/140 m³, depending on LNG rates, fertilizer blending activity, and refinery utilization.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remains anchored by refining and fertilizers, with green hydrogen still in early development and minimal influence on conventional hydrogen pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During Q1 2025 and into mid-April, North America's hydrogen market faced downward cost pressure, largely influenced by softening natural gas prices—critical to steam methane reforming (SMR) production. U.S. natural gas prices trended lower overall despite intermittent weather-driven volatility. Mild January temperatures suppressed heating demand, prompting early price drops, while short-lived cold snaps caused temporary rebounds. February brought a modest uptick due to increased residential usage and minor freeze-offs, but warmer conditions by month-end tempered momentum. March added further volatility, with early support from LNG export activity and cool forecasts, yet rising production and storage surpluses reversed gains.
For hydrogen producers reliant on natural gas feedstock, especially SMR-based facilities, the continued weakness in gas prices helped ease production costs. However, these cost savings were not fully matched by demand growth. End-user sectors such as refining and ammonia showed stable offtake, but industrial hydrogen applications remained limited by project delays and economic caution.
Overall, the North American hydrogen market remained well-supplied, with price trends shaped by abundant feedstock, tepid demand expansion, and evolving clean hydrogen policy developments. Without a strong rebound in natural gas or a step-change in demand, hydrogen prices are likely to remain rangebound in the near term.
APAC
Hydrogen prices in India averaged INR 28,700/MT Ex-Mumbai in Q1 2025, marking a 2.5% increase over Q4 2024’s average 15.4% rise year-on-year from Q1 2024. Prices climbed consistently from January to March, supported by elevated natural gas costs and seasonal demand from refineries and fertilizer producers. Production remained stable across SMR-based hydrogen plants, with consistent ammonia supply and refinery operations maintaining output. Government-set domestic gas pricing in March added upward cost pressure, reinforcing bullish market sentiment. Despite global disruptions in ammonia supply, India’s reliance on domestic sourcing mitigated major supply risks. Demand improved notably from refineries and fertilizer sectors. Crude throughput hit 21.6 MMT in February, while urea and ammonia-based fertilizer production increased ahead of the spring sowing season. However, industrial consumption outside these sectors remained modest, and green hydrogen uptake is still in its early stages. With upstream gas input costs rising and industrial hydrogen use firming regionally, especially in western India, Q1 closed on a cautiously optimistic note, hinting at continued price support into Q2.
Europe
During Q1 2025, the European hydrogen market experienced cost-side volatility tied to fluctuating natural gas prices—particularly relevant for SMR-based hydrogen production. In January, gas prices surged sharply amid colder weather and reduced Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine, raising concerns over winter storage drawdowns. However, the rally was short-lived, as milder conditions and stable LNG inflows eased supply fears by mid-month.
February brought renewed uncertainty. Prices dipped temporarily with increased LNG arrivals and easing geopolitical tensions but remained volatile due to tight inventories and ambiguity around EU storage obligations. By March, gas prices declined by over 13%, supported by mild weather and stronger LNG availability, offering some relief to hydrogen producers. Nonetheless, the market remained sensitive to storage levels and global LNG competition.
For hydrogen suppliers, these shifting gas dynamics translated to variable production costs. While lower gas prices in March improved margins, the broader market struggled with underwhelming demand from refining, mobility, and industrial sectors. Unless significant policy-driven demand acceleration materializes, European hydrogen pricing is likely to remain stable but vulnerable to feedstock and geopolitical fluctuations.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, hydrogen prices in the U.S. experienced an upward trend, influenced by rising natural gas prices, as natural gas remains a critical feedstock for hydrogen production. The surge in natural gas costs, driven by strong residential and commercial heating demand during colder weather, constrained supply, and increased LNG exports, directly impacted hydrogen production costs.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly reduced Russian gas supplies, heightened demand for U.S. energy exports, further tightening the market and amplifying feedstock price pressures. Despite stable hydrogen production levels, higher production costs due to elevated natural gas prices and supply-side constraints created upward momentum in hydrogen prices. Additionally, pipeline maintenance and logistical challenges in certain regions added to cost increases.
Demand for hydrogen remained robust across key sectors such as industrial manufacturing and transportation, with the renewable energy transition and decarbonization efforts supporting continued growth in hydrogen adoption. Looking ahead, U.S. hydrogen markets are expected to navigate continued price volatility, with geopolitical factors and natural gas price trends playing critical roles in shaping market dynamics. Increased government incentives for green hydrogen projects and advancements in electrolyzer technologies could mitigate reliance on natural gas, potentially stabilizing costs in the longer term.
APAC
In Q4 2024, India's hydrogen market demonstrated stability, with prices supported by robust domestic production and steady demand, particularly from the fertilizer sector driven by Rabi crop requirements. In December, hydrogen prices held firm, bolstered by reliable plant operations and consistent supply. Despite a slight dip in the Manufacturing PMI in November, the manufacturing sector-maintained resilience, with expanding production and employment levels. Fertilizer sector activity saw mixed trends: while urea demand surged due to seasonal agricultural needs, phosphate prices stabilized amid limited global supply, and potash prices remained steady. However, the market faced challenges, including a shortage of Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) caused by import disruptions and China’s export restrictions. This led to increased reliance on alternative fertilizers like NPK blends. The hydrogen market outlook for 2025 remains positive, driven by expected growth in manufacturing and sustained demand from agricultural applications, though potential headwinds include inflationary pressures and global supply chain uncertainties.
Europe
In Q4 2024, hydrogen prices in Europe experienced upward pressure, largely driven by increasing natural gas prices, as natural gas serves as a key feedstock for hydrogen production. The colder weather in October and November significantly boosted energy demand, particularly in Germany, where natural gas remained essential for heating and power generation. This rise in demand coincided with reduced renewable energy output, especially from wind and solar, which further heightened reliance on hydrogen and gas-fired energy solutions. Geopolitical tensions, especially the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, amplified price volatility, with concerns over potential disruptions to Russian gas supplies impacting the hydrogen supply chain. Europe's growing dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, particularly from the U.S., further constrained availability, as the region competed with Asia for limited cargoes. Although Norway’s gas inflows and stable domestic production provided some relief, lower-than-average gas storage levels added to market uncertainty, increasing production costs for hydrogen. Looking forward, the hydrogen market in Europe faces challenges from elevated feedstock costs and geopolitical risks. However, the push toward green hydrogen projects and policy initiatives aimed at decarbonization may help alleviate long-term price volatility, as investments in renewable-based hydrogen production gain momentum.
