For the Quarter Ending December 2022
Melatonin prices continued to fall in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of ongoing market volatility in the US; FOB New York prices dropped from $159850/mt to $128500/mt from October to December. The Golden Week vacation in China caused imports to be restricted during the first week of October. Demand-related offtakes in the end-user sectors remained steady throughout the quarter, and the domestic suppliers' large inventories were able to meet the overall demand. Because of China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's unrest in Ukraine, and harsh weather, supply chains remained in danger for the majority of the quarter. However, as the economy started to expand and the ports had a substantial decline in ship backlogs following a protracted port backlog, the supply chain saw a steady improvement in the second half of 2022.
The domestic Chinese Melatonin market demonstrated a major decline in prices during the 4th quarter of 2022, with FOB Shanghai values falling from $137152/mt to $102600/mt from October to December. Due to the closure of industrial facilities for the Golden Week, the orders for China's industry-producing nutraceuticals, including Melatonin, decreased steadily during the first week of October. It was challenging for the market to catch up to the small rise seen in some downstream industries during the first part of Q4 because Chinese traders had to deal with a range of contradicting signals after a one-week break. Large inventories allowed domestic producers and suppliers to meet all overall demand for the whole quarter. In reaction to criticism and severe turmoil in the country, the administration revised its zero-covid policies, which once again made the country vulnerable.
Melatonin market in the European region matched the trend in North America and showed a downward tendency during Q4 of 2022. Due to the unexpected rise in Covid cases, which resulted in a continuous fall in demand, international demand was higher in the first part of the quarter than it was in December. Germany's production increased just little in October despite continuous energy prices and supply chain issues. However, Covid scenario as well as Russia and Ukraine conflict all continued to have a detrimental effect on the overall market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
The market for Melatonin in North America demonstrated a declining trend during Q3 of 2022. The "zero-covid tolerance" policy imposed in China, a significant supplier, severely restricted the export of a range of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), including Melatonin, in the US during the past few months. However, the domestic market had enough inventories to meet the domestic demand from the end-user sectors throughout the first half of the quarter. Numerous production facilities in China were forced to close during H2 of Q3 due to the heat wave and power deficit, and several nutraceutical manufacturing sites were under maintenance, which negatively affected the US trade. A number of businesses and industries blamed a variety of factors for the drop in demand in the US, including the lingering impacts of spiking inflation, supply constraints, rising interest rates, and heightened uncertainty about the outlook for the economy.
Melatonin's domestic market across the Asia Pacific region showed a downward trend during the third quarter of 2022. From July to September, FOB Shanghai discussions in the domestic Chinese market fell from $176000/mt to $146750/mt. This price trend has been influenced by a number of factors, including low raw material costs, muted consumer spending, and sluggish end-user sector demand. Due to the poor offtakes and the underwhelming downstream demand during the first half, big suppliers only placed orders for immediate usage. However, certain vitamin manufacturing facilities underwent maintenance once the markets resumed operations in the final week of July following the shutdown, which affected the availability of Melatonin that was there for both domestic and foreign suppliers. Power shortages and extreme weather conditions further negatively impacted the market dynamics in China.
Melatonin prices in Germany fell from $180223.64/MT to $148842.74/MT from July to September, indicating a downward trend for the third quarter of 2022. Germany's economic downturn this quarter was made worse by logistical problems brought on by ongoing transportation delays and protracted port congestion. The persistent port restrictions in China as well as the instability in Russia and Ukraine, have worsened the commercial situation in Europe. Offtakes in the end-user industries during this quarter were low to stable on the demand front.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
In the North American region, during the second quarter of 2022, Melatonin prices fell slightly in the US market from $187650/mt to $183100/mt. A long-standing supply bottleneck in the country was made worse by the COVID lockdown in China's commercial capital, which significantly delayed imports. Warehouses in Southern California were overflowing with supplies for inventory replenishment, leaving little room for the ensuing rush of imports. Domestic customers were concerned about high raw material prices the entire quarter because long-term inflation expectations remained anchored, the political climate between Russia and Ukraine did not improve, and crude prices were unpredictable. Import, consumer, and production spending gradually climbed in May as a result of the sharp swings in oil prices. Despite the Asian blockades, ocean cargo from China looked to travel without any problems through the country's major ports in June. Demand from the downstream industries, however, remained firm throughout the quarter.
The second quarter of 2022 saw a stagnant pricing trajectory in the Asia Pacific region's melatonin market. FOB Shanghai prices decreased slightly from April to June, from $178245/mt to $175450/mt. The country's melatonin production increased over the first half of the quarter, along with the rise in end-user demand. The final week of April saw a rise in COVID-19 cases in China, which led to a lockdown of major production facilities. This had various effects on the country's markets, including those for nutraceuticals. In terms of demand, offtakes from the end-user industries remained steady throughout the quarter. Numerous factories were prepared to offer the product at a discount toward the end of the quarter due to the high COVID duties to shift inventory before it degrades. During this quarter, the prices in India's domestic market decelerated from INR 15250550/mt to INR 15125775/mt.
Prices for Melatonin remained high in Europe during the second quarter of 2022, albeit they began to drop at the end of June. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which increased freight costs and disrupted the European supply chain, severely limited trade activity from importing nations. Demand from end-user industries like the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors remained constant during the entire quarter. However, there were enough supplies at the suppliers to meet the whole domestic demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
Melatonin prices in North America increased by 5.49 percent in the first quarter of 2022, rising from USD175545/mt to USD185190/mt between January and March. Demand fundamentals in H1 of Q1, 2022 remained robust, owing to continuous consumption in the domestic market, which has seen a large increase in demand among Americans. On the supply front, as dealers refilled their stockpiles in preparation for the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, supplies were sufficient to meet consumer demand throughout the first quarter of 2022. High freight charges, protracted port congestion, and a disrupted supply chain, on the other hand, contributed to Melatonin's higher price trend in the US market.
On the strength of consistent intakes in the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals industries, Melatonin prices rose effectively across the Asia Pacific region in the first quarter of 2022. In China, FOB prices for Qingdao and Shanghai were assessed at USD176275/mt and USD178245/mt in the month ending March, respectively. The supply chain for Melatonin, as well as numerous other active pharmaceutical ingredients, was disrupted after Chinese authorities clamped down on the movement of Tianjin, one of the main ports in Northern China, which had further reinforced the product's price trend across China. Melatonin demand increased dramatically across the country as it became popular among Chinese youngsters for treating sleep disorders. Increased raw material prices in the country have had a further impact on melatonin spot market prices. In the Indian domestic market, the market trend of Melatonin remained in an upward trajectory after the pharma grade prices got settled at USD120766/mt in March 2022.
After a minor increase in price during Q1 of 2022, Melatonin costs in Europe began to resemble those in North America. On the demand side, the Nutraceutical and Pharmaceutical industries' offtakes remained solid throughout the quarter. Limited supply, on the other hand, combined with expensive freight and transportation costs, continued to irritate market attitudes across the region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
The domestic Melatonin market in the US, North America witnessed mixed sentiments in the fourth quarter of 2021. The pricing trend of Melatonin observed a decline of 0.7%, as the prices for FOB New Jersey deescalated from USD 178705/MT to USD 177400/MT from October to December. Several market players remarked that demand for Melatonin has subdued following a traditional pattern where it generally declines towards Q4. The logistics availability increased in the month of November on the back of the improved supply chains across the US.
After the devastating hurricane season, stability in the shipping industry was also observed. These factors have contributed towards strengthening supply fundamentals during this quarter. It is anticipated that the Melatonin prices may increase in quarter 1 of 2022 along with the improved demand.
In the 4th quarter of 2021, the pricing trend of Melatonin demonstrated an improvement across the Asia Pacific region. In the Chinese domestic market, the prices of Melatonin observed a slight increment and were settled at USD 151075/MT and USD 151175/MT for FOB Qingdao and FOB Shanghai, respectively in the week ending of December. One of the leading Melatonin suppliers revealed that the increased demand for sleep, stress, and mood-management products pushed up this year’s sales by 20%. In the month of November, the market sentiments strengthened in China as inquiries and offtakes from the domestic as well as overseas buyers surged due to active inquiries from the consumers.
The country’s overall manufacturing output remained affected throughout Q4 due to soaring raw material prices compelled by the shortage of coal and gas due to power cuts in China which further strengthened the manufacturer’s will to raise the offered quotations for the spot market. In India, the domestic market trend of Melatonin witnessed an upward trajectory as the Ex-Mumbai prices for pharma grade escalated from USD 133930.3/MT to USD 137771.2/MT in Q4 2021.
The market sentiments improved in the European region during the 4th quarter of 2021 on the back of the increased demand from the downstream industries. However, the supply outlook of Melatonin remained disrupted throughout the quarter on the back of the peaking energy crises across Europe. Soaring freight and shipping charges have also supported the price trend in this quarter.