For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, PVC prices in North America followed a declining trend, impacted by weak demand and economic uncertainties. Early in the quarter, prices were affected by low demand from the automotive and construction sectors, coupled with ample inventories and stagnant upstream ethylene and crude oil costs. Seasonal factors and holiday-related disruptions further dampened production rates and delayed imports, contributing to price declines throughout the quarter.
The construction sector, which accounts for 60% of PVC consumption, experienced mixed dynamics. While home sales showed resilience in October, benefiting from favorable mortgage rates, activity slowed in November and December as rates rose again. Seasonal slowdowns and cautious inventory management by buyers exacerbated demand pressures, leaving the market bearish as the year ended.
On the supply side, production cuts and logistical challenges, including port congestion and potential tariff hikes, strained market stability. Despite these headwinds, domestic manufacturers managed to stabilize supply through inventory adjustments and consistent ethylene costs. However, subdued demand and rising imports, alongside global economic challenges, limited price recovery. Overall, Q4 2024 marked a bearish phase for North American PVC prices, driven by weak fundamentals, seasonal slowdowns, and a challenging macroeconomic environment.
Asia
In Q4 2024, PVC prices in Asia exhibited a steadily increasing trend, influenced by evolving demand dynamics and regulatory measures. Early in the quarter, prices rose due to higher demand from the construction sector, supported by government stimulus measures in China to revitalize the real estate market. Improved buyer sentiment in major cities, such as Nanjing, drove higher transaction volumes, with new home sales increasing by 40% month-over-month in October. However, demand recovery remained moderate overall, as cautious buyer behavior persisted. The announcement of anti-dumping duties on PVC imports by India further shaped the regional market. Duties imposed on imports from China and other regions boosted domestic PVC margins and supported price stability. Despite initial gains, China’s market faced challenges from high inventory levels and elevated production rates, which contributed to mid-quarter price corrections. By December, PVC prices stabilized as manufacturers maintained high output, creating a slight oversupply. Weak procurement enthusiasm from downstream sectors, especially construction, limited market activity. While government policies in China and India provided support, overall demand and supply remained imbalanced. Q4 2024 highlighted a regionally varied but generally positive trend for PVC prices in Asia, with growth driven by demand recovery, regulatory impacts, and strategic manufacturing adjustments.
Europe
In Q4 2024, PVC prices in Europe demonstrated a steadily increasing trend, supported by balanced supply conditions and inflationary pressures. Early in the quarter, German PVC prices rose, driven by steady construction demand and tighter regional supplies due to production cuts and logistical challenges. Technical issues at Vynova's PVC facility in Belgium and congestion at Hamburg’s container terminal further constrained supply, stabilizing prices despite subdued demand. In November, balanced supply dynamics and consistent domestic production aligned with market needs, while rising freight rates from Asia slightly impacted logistics costs. Demand from Germany's construction sector remained under pressure, with new project orders and construction activity declining amid high costs and weak economic sentiment. The construction PMI showed continued contraction, reflecting significant headwinds for PVC consumption. By December, the PVC market remained stable, supported by steady ethylene costs and controlled production rates. However, thin margins and subdued downstream demand, particularly in housing and commercial construction, limited market growth.
Middle East Asia
PVC prices in the Middle East demonstrated a steady trend throughout Q4 2024, influenced by stable supply dynamics, improving logistics, and sustained demand in key sectors like construction. In early November, Saudi PVC prices stabilized due to limited availability and eased production costs amid declining crude oil and ethylene prices. However, logistical challenges, including disruptions in the Red Sea caused by geopolitical tensions, resulted in increased shipping costs and port delays, further tightening supply. In November, improved port operations in Saudi Arabia, reflected by a surge in containerized exports, helped maintain a stable PVC supply to Asian markets. Declining crude oil prices and steady feedstock costs supported supply continuity despite inefficiencies in transshipment and overall container throughput. Demand remained robust, driven by Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 construction projects, including the Jeddah Tower. Despite labor shortages and broader economic uncertainties, infrastructure and real estate activities continued to support PVC consumption. By late December, reduced vessel stay durations at major ports like Yanbu and Al Jubail bolstered logistics, while consecutive mild winters and rising ethylene prices exerted upward pressure on PVC prices.
South America
PVC prices in South America, particularly in Brazil, experienced a downward trend during Q4 2024. Early in the quarter, prices saw a significant drop in early November, driven by weak demand, ample stock availability, and declining upstream crude oil and ethylene prices. The Brazilian PVC market faced supply chain disruptions due to persistent logistical challenges, including delays in US-origin shipments and a customs strike at Santos Port. These disruptions, combined with rising logistics costs, affected supply stability and added pressure on prices. Despite these challenges, PVC demand in Brazil remained steady, particularly in the construction sector, supported by government housing programs. However, the market’s overall sentiment was bearish as year-end approached, with subdued demand and reduced activity in the construction sector due to higher interest rates and seasonal factors. The real estate sector, while stable, was impacted by high borrowing costs, limiting PVC consumption growth. By December, the PVC market in Brazil experienced a continued decline, influenced by a combination of global supply chain disruptions, tariff uncertainties, and weak market conditions. The overall outlook for PVC prices in South America remained cautious, with logistical challenges and soft demand constraining price recovery through the end of the year.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market witnessed a notable decline in prices, predominantly driven by a confluence of factors. The market faced a challenging quarter marked by decreased demand, amplified by a slowdown in the construction sector and subdued export markets.
Additionally, lower feedstock costs and a surplus of supplies contributed to the downward pressure on PVC prices. The region experienced supply chain disruptions due to hurricanes and plant shutdowns, further straining market dynamics. Transitioning to the USA, the market exhibited significant fluctuations, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter in 2024.
However, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a substantial 11% drop, emphasizing the volatility in pricing trends. Despite these challenges, the quarter FOB Texas ended with PVC Pipe Grade priced at USD 708/MT, reflecting a persistently negative pricing environment. Seasonality and market correlations underscored the prevailing downward sentiment, indicative of a challenging period for the PVC market in the USA.
Asia
In Q3 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the APAC region experienced a period of decreasing prices, with Japan seeing the most significant changes. The overall market was influenced by various factors, including disrupted trade routes, geopolitical tensions, and muted demand. Supply chain disruptions, particularly delayed export demand, contributed to the challenging environment. Upstream price stability and a dip in crude oil costs further impacted PVC pricing in the region. On the cost side, upstream Ethylene prices offered moderate support, resulting in an average level of cost pressure. However, PVC performance in the futures market weakened in the later stages, which affected confidence in the spot market and contributed to a generally bearish outlook across the Asian region. Japan witnessed the most notable price fluctuations, with prices increasing by 1% from the previous quarter, indicating a continued downward trend. The second half of the quarter saw a 3.9% decline compared to the first half. The quarter ended with PVC Suspension Flexible Grade K67 priced at USD 710/MT FOB Tokyo in Japan. These changes reflect a consistently negative pricing environment, characterized by ongoing challenges and uncertainty in the PVC market.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market witnessed an overall trend of increasing prices, influenced by several significant factors. Market dynamics were primarily shaped by stagnant demand, high supply levels, and fluctuating upstream costs. These elements created a challenging environment, leading to pricing pressures. Germany, in particular, experienced the most significant price changes, with a notable increase in PVC prices. This surge can be attributed to constrained supplies, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and reduced production rates. The market also faced challenges from port strikes and floods, impacting operations and contributing to the price volatility seen in the region. The quarter-on-quarter change of 1% indicated a slight positive shift. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, with a 3.2% price difference, highlighted the evolving pricing dynamics within Q3 2024. The quarter-ending price of USD 964/MT for PVC Suspension Calendering Grade K57 FD Vreden in Germany further underscored the increasing sentiment in the pricing environment for PVC in the region.
Middle East Asia
The third quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the MEA region, characterized by decreasing prices and a bearish sentiment. Several factors have contributed to the decline in PVC prices. Firstly, the market has been influenced by a combination of high supply levels, weakened demand in the construction sector, and stable upstream Ethylene prices. These factors have created a situation of oversupply and limited demand, putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and concerns about weakening global demand for energy commodities have further dampened market sentiment. Within Saudi Arabia, the PVC market has experienced the most significant price changes in the region. The quarter saw an overall decrease in prices, with a 4% difference between the first and second half of the quarter reflecting the ongoing downward trend. The quarter-ending price for Poly Vinyl Chloride Suspension Grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 800/MT, highlighting the continued negative pricing environment in the region.
South America
In the quarter ending September 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in South America witnessed a notable downward trend in prices, primarily influenced by several key factors. The market experienced a challenging quarter characterized by decreased demand in the construction sector, high inventory levels, and a surplus of low-cost imports from various regions. These dynamics led to a consistent decline in PVC prices throughout the quarter. Brazil, in particular, saw significant price fluctuations, with the market facing the maximum impact of these negative trends. The overall trend for PVC prices in Q3 2024 exhibited a negative sentiment. On the cost side, the overall trend of key upstream material, Ethylene remained weak, further eroding cost support for PVC prices. The quarter-on-quarter change remained stable at 0%, indicating a sustained downward trajectory. Notably, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a substantial 9.3% decrease, highlighting the intensified price decline in the latter part of Q3. The quarter concluded with PVC Pipe Grade CFR-Santos in Brazil priced at USD 852/MT, reflecting the prevailing bearish market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American market for Poly polyvinyl chloride (PVC) experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by constrained supply and heightened input costs, particularly due to limited inventories and rising crude oil prices, which reached a two-month high. Additionally, severe weather conditions, including the hurricane season and floods, disrupted industrial demand and production rates, further tightening supply chains. The combined effects of these disruptions, along with a shortage of containers and logistical challenges, fueled an upward trajectory in PVC prices.
Focusing on the USA, the country experienced the most significant price fluctuations within the region. Seasonal factors, such as the hurricane season, exacerbated supply constraints, leading to an 8.9% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter. The pricing environment was further strained by robust domestic demand and export opportunities, particularly in Africa and Asia, as buyers sought alternatives to mitigate supply gaps.
Consequently, the quarter-ending price for PVC Pipe Grade FOB Texas in the USA stood at USD 813/MT. This upward trend reflects a positive pricing environment, driven by high input costs, robust demand, and constrained supply, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures within the PVC market in North America during Q2 2024.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the APAC region experienced a pronounced increase in prices, driven predominantly by a confluence of supply chain disruptions and heightened production costs. The market faced significant logistical challenges, including severe container shortages and escalating ocean freight rates. These logistical bottlenecks were compounded by reduced production rates due to maintenance shutdowns and upstream cost pressures from rising crude oil and ethylene prices. Additionally, an upsurge in downstream demand, particularly from the construction sector, further tightened the supply-demand balance, exerting upward pressure on PVC prices. Focusing on Japan, the country witnessed the most substantial price fluctuations within the region. The PVC market in Japan was notably impacted by an extended maintenance turnaround at key production facilities, which exacerbated the already strained supply situation. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter also indicated a consistent 2% increase. The quarter concluded with the PVC Suspension flexible grade K67 price assessed at USD 748/MT FOB Tokyo. This consistent upward trend reflects a positive pricing environment for PVC in Japan, influenced heavily by supply constraints and robust demand, signaling a market that remains sensitive to production and logistical dynamics.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in Europe experienced a marginal decrease in prices. This decline was driven by several key factors, including subdued domestic demand within the construction sector, and intensified competition among regional sellers. Additionally, the economic outlook remained uncertain, exacerbating the bearish market sentiments. The upstream cost pressures, especially from ethylene, eased somewhat but were insufficient to buoy PVC prices. Shipping disruptions and logistical challenges further compounded the market's instability, causing many producers to reduce output rates. Focusing on Germany, where the most significant price changes occurred, the market dynamics closely mirrored the broader regional trends. German PVC prices fell sharply, influenced by a combination of high production costs and weak downstream demand, particularly from the construction industry. The first half of the quarter showed a slight resilience but eventually succumbed to a 1% decline in the latter half. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 925/MT for PVC Suspension Calendering Grade K57 FD Vreden, underscoring the bearish market sentiment that has dominated this period. Overall, the pricing environment for PVC in Germany during Q2 2024 has been marginal negative, driven by structural market weaknesses and supply-related disruptions.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the MEA region experienced a marked upward trend, driven by several critical factors. Key influencers included constrained domestic supplies, elevated production costs stemming from rising crude oil prices, and logistical disruptions. The rebounding crude oil prices significantly heightened cost pressures on PVC production, leading to an inevitable increase in market prices. Compounding these challenges were sustained reductions in production rates and container shortages, which further tightened the supply chain. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the region witnessing the most substantial price flux, these dynamics were particularly pronounced. Seasonal demand fluctuations in the construction sector amplified price volatility, with the peak season typically driving up prices. The overall trend was an escalatory one, reflecting an increasing sentiment in the market. Notably, a 4% price increase between the first and second halves of Q2 highlights mid-quarter accelerations in price dynamics. By the end of the quarter, the price of Poly Vinyl Chloride Suspension Grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia closed at USD 827/MT. This consistent increase underscores a positive pricing environment for PVC, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. The interplay of high upstream costs, logistical bottlenecks, and seasonal demand spikes has created a market characterized by increased prices and tightened supply chains, reflecting a predominantly positive market sentiment.
South America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) pricing landscape in the South American region witnessed a significant uptrend. This surge was primarily influenced by various factors such as supply chain disruptions, limited inventories, high selling costs, and elevated freight charges. The market was further impacted by production cuts in key exporting nations and fluctuating crude oil prices, which heightened cost pressures and propelled PVC prices upwards. Brazil, in particular, experienced the most substantial price fluctuations within the region, with a notable 7% price variance between the first and second half of the quarter. This volatility in pricing reflected the dynamic nature of the market, where demand-supply dynamics, seasonal weather patterns, and currency fluctuations played a crucial role in shaping price trends. The quarter-ending price of USD 977/MT for PVC Pipe Grade CFR-Santos in Brazil underscored the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market, signaling a positive pricing environment that favored sellers amid tightening supplies and growing demand. As the market navigates these complexities, continuous monitoring of economic indicators, construction activity, and supply chain conditions will be crucial for accurately projecting the demand for PVC in the coming months.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been a period of increasing prices for Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) in the North American region. Several factors have influenced market prices during this time.
Firstly, there has been a surge in demand from the downstream construction sector, driven by infrastructure development projects and increased manufacturing activity. In a concerning turn of events, the collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge has raised alarms regarding the smooth movement of PVC in the United States. This incident comes at a precarious time when tank supplies in the region were already under strain due to unfavorable weather conditions.
This quarter, the focus is on consumer inflation data in the United States, particularly following a strong payroll employment report indicating a robust labor market. Currently, interest rates are in a contractionary phase, aiming to slow down economic expansion. Moreover, the PVC exported value dipped by 5.2% during January 2024 indicating a surge in the inventory levels. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 7%, indicating a significant upward price movement. To conclude, the latest quarter-ending price for PVC Pipe Grade FOB Texas in the USA was USD 736/MT during March 2024. The pricing environment for PVC in the North American region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with increasing prices driven by improved downstream demand and supply constraints.
APAC
The Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market has experienced a decline in the APAC region during the first quarter of 2024. The market has been influenced by various factors, including weak downstream demand, and ample supplies. Despite increased crude oil prices, the PVC market has remained steady. Confidence in the spot market has weakened, resulting in temporary fluctuations and consolidation. On the PVC demand front, the demand from the Chinese construction sector remained low during the quarter. Stocking operations were predominantly geared toward meeting demand. Producers had previously offered discounts in March deals in Vietnam to stimulate sales, signaling ongoing challenges in the market despite price adjustments. Traditionally, Taiwanese producers had set benchmarks for PVC pricing in Asian markets. However, recent developments suggested a departure from this trend, with some Chinese producers choosing to maintain stable export prices amidst unfavorable supply-demand dynamics. The inventory levels in the downstream market were elevated, characterized by weak demand and sales, making it challenging to stimulate the sluggish market through infrastructure initiatives. However, In Japan, PVC prices have increased by 3.7% during this quarter, reaching USD 724/MT for PVC Suspension Flexible Grade K67 FOB Tokyo in March 2024 due to constrained supplies.
Europe
The recent increase in PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) prices in the European market during the quarter ending March 2024, reflected moderate demand and a scarcity of suppliers. Challenges faced by the European PVC supply chain, including logistics disruptions linked to the Red Sea turmoil, contributed to the current PVC pricing trend. Downstream production rates have decreased due to supply disruptions, leading market participants to take a cautious stance on further changes. Limited PVC supplies in the German domestic market were notable despite low demand fundamentals amidst slowed construction activities. Global crude oil prices surged, surpassing USD 87 per barrel, driven by factors like tighter physical markets, OPEC+ production cuts extension, and geopolitical tensions. However, PVC prices in the German market remained stagnant, with a narrowed demand-supply gap and limited stock availability amid rising input costs in the middle of the quarter. The supply concerns emerged in March 2024 as the Easter holidays approached, particularly focusing on German ports facing closures during weeks 13 and 14 due to the holidays. Moreover, the export value of PVC increased by approximately 27% in January 2024 indicating a shortage of inventories in the line of production rate cuts further escalating the PVC prices this quarter.
Middle East Asia
The first quarter of 2024 was a positive period for the Poly polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in the MEA region. PVC prices underwent significant changes, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Influential factors included increased downstream demand in the construction industry, limited stock availability, and stabilizing upstream ethylene prices. These factors created a bullish market situation with moderate supply and moderate to high demand. In Saudi Arabia, PVC prices surged in February 2024 due to increased domestic demand from the construction industry and limited stock availability. Business conditions improved sharply, with downstream construction companies expressing optimism about their growth prospects. Demand for PVC ranged from moderate to high, supporting product costs and boosting buying confidence in the downstream industry. Overall trends, seasonality, and price change correlations showed a gradual increase in PVC prices throughout the quarter. Prices experienced a positive percentage change from the same quarter last year, indicating market growth. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was also positive, reflecting continued upward momentum in prices. In conclusion, the PVC pricing environment in the MEA region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, was positive in the first quarter of 2024, influenced by increased demand, limited supply, and stable upstream prices. The quarter-ending price for PVC Suspension Calendering Grade K60 FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia was USD 765/MT.
South America
The PVC price trend in South America was on the upward side in the first quarter of 2024 due to constrained regional supplies and tight stock availability. The PVC price trajectory in the Brazilian market continued to be impacted by disruptions in the supply chain following a collision involving the Bridge at Baltimore and a container ship in the USA on the early morning of March 26th. This incident posed another threat to the PVC supply chain, coupled with a moderate increase in downstream demand towards the end of March 2024. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore further exacerbated disruptions, significantly affecting traffic flow through the Maryland port. This port served as a vital center for warehousing and transshipment activities for various commodities, including PVC, along the US East Coast. Traders adjusted their pricing strategies based on warehouse stock availability, while adverse weather conditions intermittently disrupted terminal operations, prompting careful contingency planning. Despite an improvement in downstream demand, traders cautiously raised product prices to maintain margins. Moreover, as per the latest data, the imported value declined by 1% in February 2024 indicating tight stock availability in the Brazilian market.
