For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Polyalphaolefin Price Index rose by 3.47% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting balanced market fundamentals.
• The average Polyalphaolefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 2734.33/MT, reflecting overall price stabilization for market participants.
• Polyalphaolefin Spot Price remained range-bound amid balanced supply and steady downstream demand limited volatility this quarter.
• Polyalphaolefin Price Forecast edges toward stability, supported by ongoing export momentum and steady domestic consumption.
• Polyalphaolefin Demand Outlook remains constructive with automotive lubrication growth and resilient industrial applications in North America.
• Polyalphaolefin Price Index signals muted volatility as supply is ample and feedstock costs stabilize this period.
• The PAO Spot Price trend aligns with domestic production capacity and steady inventory levels nationwide.
Why did the price of Polyalphaolefin change in September 2025 in North America?
• Steady demand from the downstream supported price movement throughout the quarter in North America.
• Logistics constraints and port congestion continued to influence regional availability, tempering price upside during the period.
APAC
• In China, the Polyalphaolefin Price Index rose by 3.85% quarter-over-quarter, in Q3 2025, supported by demand.
• The average Polyalphaolefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 2721.00/MT, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
• Polyalphaolefin Spot Price movements is attributed to restricted import amid tariff influence.
• Polyalphaolefin Price Forecast for Q4 remained cautious, given steady costs and muted downstream restocking signals.
• Polyalphaolefin Production Cost Trend showed gradual pressure from ethylene-linked feedstocks, tempering further price upside near-term potential.
Why did the price of Polyalphaolefin change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Seasonal demand oscillations from automotive and lubricants supported price growth, despite logistics headwinds across ports.
• Restrictive import flows from overseas and inventory adjustment by local players amid the tariff related business uncertainty, supported the prices to rise.
Europe
• In Germany, the Polyalphaolefin Price Index rose by 1.60% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, supported by moderate supply and steady demand from end-use automotive sector.
• The average Polyalphaolefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 2142 per MT, reflecting mid-range pricing.
• PAO Spot Price in Europe remained steady amid balanced supply and steady exporter demand, supporting the Price Index.
• Polyalphaolefin Price Forecast remains broadly stable, with modest upside risk from automotive lubricant demand and winter preparations.
• Production Cost Trend eased as ethylene feedstock costs cooled, supporting steady PAO output.
• Demand Outlook remains resilient in automotive and industrial lubrication segments, underpinning continued consumption despite macro softness.
• Price Index movements reflect steady regional trade and logistics, with modest relief from tariff stability and port congestion.
• Additionally, regional inventory levels remained adequate, contributing to contained price volatility and stable market sentiment.
• Export demand from neighbouring markets supports PAO liquidity and reduces downward price pressure.
Why did the price of Polyalphaolefin change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Seasonal automotive demand supported lubricant consumption, limiting downside price movement despite softer industrial activity lately.
• Logistics constraints at European ports and rail affected deliveries, contributing to price escalation this month.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Polyalphaolefin (PAO) Price in the USA decreased by 4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, driving a downward trend in the Price Index.
• The PAO Production Cost Trend remained mostly steady despite fluctuations in feedstock ethylene costs, while supply availability was adequate amid consistent manufacturing operations and uninterrupted logistics.
• Subdued offtake from downstream segments such as automotive and industrial lubricants kept demand muted, even though vehicle servicing needs maintained a baseline level of consumption.
• The PAO Demand Outlook remained cautious, with buyers preferring to rely on existing inventories rather than bulk procurement due to uncertainty around broader economic conditions and high freight costs.
Why did the price of PAO change in July 2025 in North America?
• In July 2025, the PAO Spot Price in North America declined due to sluggish demand from downstream automotive and lubricant sectors, despite stable supply and feedstock availability.
• The PAO Production Cost Trend showed limited upward pressure, with only mild increases in ethylene prices, which weren’t sufficient to offset the demand-side weakness.
• The PAO Demand Outlook remained soft, as vehicle sales dipped significantly, dampening consumption in the automotive lubricants segment.
• The PAO Price Forecast suggests continued bearish sentiment in the near term unless a sustained recovery in automotive and industrial demand materializes.
APAC
• The PAO Spot Price in China remained unchanged quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, maintaining a flat trajectory in the Price Index.
• Demand from the downstream automotive and industrial lubricants sectors held steady, with growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) output and traditional ICE vehicle usage supporting overall consumption.
• The PAO Production Cost Trend remained stable, with consistent ethylene feedstock pricing and minimal disruption across domestic production and logistics channels.
• Adequate supply levels, sustained import flows, and cautious procurement strategies among blenders contributed to the market's price stability despite global cost pressures.
Why did the price of PAO change in July 2025 in Asia?
• In July 2025, the PAO Spot Price in China remained stable, supported by balanced supply conditions and steady demand from lubricant and automotive segments.
• The PAO Production Cost Trend stayed neutral due to consistent ethylene feedstock prices and stable manufacturing activity.
• The PAO Demand Outlook was moderately positive, driven by robust NEV production and sustained ICE vehicle usage, although cautious inventory management restrained immediate spot market activity.
• The PAO Price Forecast anticipates continued price stability in the near term, provided feedstock trends and downstream consumption remain steady without external shocks.
Europe
• The PAO Spot Price in Europe decreased by 2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflected in a softer Price Index, largely due to elevated inventory levels and subdued automotive lubricant demand.
• The PAO Production Cost Trend remained mostly steady, as fluctuating feedstock ethylene prices were offset by stable energy inputs and optimized manufacturing operations.
• The PAO Demand Outlook stayed muted, with lower consumption from lubricant blenders and restrained activity in the automotive and industrial sectors across Germany and neighboring markets.
• Despite stable supply and smooth logistics, sellers faced mounting competitive pressure and resorted to cautious discounting to sustain market participation.
Why did the price of PAO change in July 2025 in Europe?
• In July 2025, the PAO Spot Price declined due to oversupply conditions and soft downstream demand from lubricant and automotive sectors.
• The PAO Production Cost Trend was stable, aided by balanced raw material prices and unhampered manufacturing throughput.
• The PAO Demand Outlook remained cautious, with lubricant consumption impacted by modest vehicle production and weaker industrial activity.
• The PAO Price Forecast suggests continued mild downward pressure unless there is a notable rebound in automotive lubricant blending and export momentum.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, PAO prices in the U.S. rose moderately by 2.77%, driven by tightening supply conditions and modest growth in manufacturing activity. Weather-related disruptions at key East Coast ports in January caused slight delays in transportation and delivery, leading to constrained supply in some regions and supporting the price uptick.
Additionally, the U.S. manufacturing index posted a 2.85% increase from the previous month, with accelerated output and new orders. This improvement, coupled with the clearance of outstanding work, created upward pressure on lubricant demand. Though base oil and feedstock ethylene prices remained relatively stable or slightly down, localized supply issues and growing industrial activity contributed to the price increase.
While downstream demand remained steady overall, EV sales showed an upward trend, offering some support to lubricant usage despite a general slowdown in traditional automotive sales. With producers exercising caution amid supply chain inconsistencies, the slight price increase reflects a delicate balance between supply constraints and selective demand recovery.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the PAO market in the APAC region has experienced a slight price decline of 0.26%, primarily due to weakening demand across key sectors. The most notable factor contributing to this decrease was the reduced consumption from the automotive industry, with China’s passenger vehicle retail sales falling by 12.1% year-on-year in January. This drop significantly affected lubricant demand, a key downstream application of PAO.
Additionally, many manufacturers shifted to using existing inventories rather than placing new orders, reflecting a cautious procurement strategy amid subdued market sentiment. The post-holiday slowdown in manufacturing activity further decreased demand for industrial lubricants.
The ongoing shift toward EV-specific lubricants also impacted traditional PAO consumption patterns, while the absence of new market entrants limited additional demand. Despite stable raw material availability and lower shipping costs due to declining freight indices, demand-side weakness outweighed supply stability, resulting in a slight overall price reduction in the PAO market across the region.
EUROPE
In the first quarter of 2025, the European PAO market witnessed a significant price decline of 14.87%, driven primarily by oversupply and weak demand across downstream sectors. As production outpaced consumption, many manufacturers were compelled to lower prices to clear surplus inventories. Several PAO plants in the region reduced their operating rates or temporarily halted production to manage excess stock levels.
Germany, a key PAO market, saw continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, with reduced output, declining new orders, and shrinking export volumes contributing to diminished demand. Automotive sales and car production, especially in the internal combustion engine segment, also remained below previous levels. This downturn in the automotive industry, traditionally a major consumer of PAO, further pressured market demand.
Additionally, many businesses adopted conservative procurement strategies, relying on existing inventory rather than placing new orders. While the EV sector grows, its preference for alternative lubricants has reduced reliance on traditional PAOs, reinforcing the downward price trend in the region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the PAO market in North America displayed a relatively stable pattern, albeit under the influence of weak demand and slower movement in key sectors, particularly lubricants. The lubricant industry, which is a primary consumer of PAOs, saw reduced growth during this period due to slower-than-expected recovery in industrial operations and restrained consumer spending.
Additionally, limited export activities contributed to the overall stability in the North American PAO market. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, coupled with shifting trade dynamics, led to a reduction in export opportunities, especially to emerging markets. These factors restrained the volume of PAO exports, further limiting market growth potential.
Despite these challenges, the PAO market remained stable, supported by consistent domestic demand and strategic adjustments by industry players. Manufacturers focused on maintaining production levels and optimizing supply chains to adapt to the slower pace of the market. As per ChemAnalyst, the cost of PAO 8Cst was settled at USD 2920/MT on a FOB Oklahoma basis.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the performance of the PAO market in Asia experienced a notable decline. This trend was primarily driven by weak demand and sluggish movement in key sectors such as lubricants, which constitute a significant portion of PAO consumption. The lubricant industry, which typically drives the demand for PAOs due to their role in enhancing product performance, faced slow growth during this period. Factors such as lower industrial activity and a shift in consumer preferences toward more cost-effective alternatives contributed to the subdued market conditions. In addition, limited export activities further exacerbated the decline in demand. Geopolitical uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating oil prices had a dampening effect on trade flows across the region. The reduced export opportunities, especially to markets in Europe and North America, stifled the overall growth of the PAO sector in Asia during Q4. As a result, manufacturers faced challenges in maintaining production levels and optimizing inventory management. With demand remaining sluggish, the market outlook for PAOs in the short term remains cautious. Industry players are likely to adopt more conservative strategies, focusing on cost management and improving operational efficiencies to navigate the current market dynamics.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the European PAO market saw a slight improvement in prices at the beginning of the period, driven by restocking efforts and a modest uptick in demand from the lubricant sector. As manufacturers replenished inventory levels and adjusted to changing market conditions, prices experienced a brief rise. However, as the quarter progressed, PAO prices stabilized, and the demand for the product remained steady, with supply levels proving sufficient to meet market needs. Despite the stable demand for PAO, the market faced challenges, particularly in the downstream automotive sector. The performance of the automotive industry remained bearish throughout Q4, as sluggish consumer demand and reduced vehicle production dampened the need for traditional lubricants. Additionally, the increasing shift toward electric vehicles (EVs), which require fewer lubricants, placed further pressure on PAO consumption within this sector. Overall, the European PAO market maintained a stable pattern during the quarter, with weak demand and slow movement in lubricant sectors. Limited export activities further contributed to the subdued market dynamics, as global trade remained constrained. Manufacturers in the region are likely to adopt cautious strategies moving forward, focusing on operational efficiencies and navigating the ongoing challenges in both the automotive and lubricant industries.
