For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increasing production costs and robust retail demand.
• Semi-Craft Paper production costs increased due to a 3.0% CPI rise in September 2025, reflecting broader inflationary pressures.
• Producer input costs were elevated by a 2.6% PPI increase in August 2025, impacting Semi-Craft Paper manufacturing expenses.
• Demand for Semi-Craft Paper was bolstered by a 5.42% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
• Industrial natural gas prices rose in August 2025, directly contributing to higher energy and feedstock costs for production.
• Industrial production increased by 0.1% in September 2025, reflecting near-stagnant growth in manufacturing output.
• E-commerce sales growth was surging in 2025, providing significant demand for Semi-Craft Paper packaging solutions.
• US containerboard production diminished in Q3 2025, while operating rates augmented, suggesting tighter supply conditions.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in September 2025 in North America?
• Rising input costs, with PPI up 2.6% in August 2025, elevated Semi-Craft Paper production expenses.
• Robust consumer spending, retail sales up 5.42% in September 2025, bolstered packaging material demand.
• Industrial natural gas prices rose in August 2025, increasing operational costs for manufacturers.
APAC
• In China, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by deflationary pressures.
• Semi-Craft Paper demand outlook softened due to the Manufacturing Index contracting in September 2025.
• Production costs for Semi-Craft Paper faced upward pressure as pulp feedstock costs firmed in Q3 2025.
• Manufacturing input prices remained elevated in September 2025, impacting overall production expenses.
• Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, providing some underlying demand support.
• Retail sales increased 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, though consumer spending moderated later in the quarter.
• Raw material inventories tightened in July, with the decline narrowing by September 2025, affecting supply dynamics.
• China's total goods imports and exports expanded in Q3 2025, despite declining US exports in September.
• The Consumer Confidence Index of 89.6 in September 2025 indicated a pessimistic consumer outlook.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Deflationary pressures from CPI (-0.3% YoY) and PPI (-2.3% YoY) in September 2025 reduced demand.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, signaling weaker industrial demand for packaging materials.
• Pulp feedstock costs firmed in Q3 2025, while declining coal prices eased power-related production costs.
Europe
• In Germany, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting industrial activity.
• Semi-Craft Paper production costs saw mixed trends; NBSK pulp costs eased, while natural gas prices remained elevated in Q3 2025.
• Germany's industrial production declined by 1.0% in September 2025, significantly weakening Semi-Craft Paper demand.
• The Manufacturing Index trended contracting in Q3 2025, further reducing overall demand for packaging materials.
• Producer prices (PPI) were lower by 1.7% in September 2025, primarily due to decreased energy costs for manufacturers.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in September 2025, indicating rising general operational expenses for producers.
• E-commerce packaging demand strengthened in Q3 2025, partially offsetting the broader packaging sector's weakness.
• Retail sales in Germany increased by 0.2% in September 2025, offering mild support for consumer-facing packaging.
• Ample mill inventories and cautious buying by pulp market participants characterized Q3 2025 in Germany.
• The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% in September 2025, suggesting cautious consumer spending.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Industrial production declined by 1.0% in September 2025, reducing demand for packaging materials.
• Producer prices fell 1.7% in September 2025, driven by lower energy costs for manufacturers.
• E-commerce packaging demand strengthened, while overall packaging sector demand weakened in Q3 2025.
