For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Semi-Craft Paper Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, driven by robust demand and increased input costs.
- Semi-Craft Paper production costs trended upward in Q4 2025, influenced by a 3.0% year-over-year PPI increase in November 2025.
- Demand for Semi-Craft Paper strengthened in Q4 2025, supported by a 2.0% year-over-year rise in industrial production in December 2025.
- Retail sales strengthened in November-December 2025, increasing 3.3% year-over-year in November, boosting Semi-Craft Paper demand.
- Imported hardwood pulp spot prices trended upward with volatility in Q4 2025, increasing Semi-Craft Paper production expenses.
- Natural gas spot prices gradually rose in the final months of 2025, impacting Semi-Craft Paper energy feedstock costs.
- General inflation, indicated by a 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase in December 2025, raised Semi-Craft Paper input costs.
- E-commerce expansion robustly fueled demand for Semi-Craft Paper packaging papers throughout Q4 2025.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in December 2025 in North America?
- Industrial production increased 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, strengthening Semi-Craft Paper demand.
- General inflation, with CPI rising 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, elevated Semi-Craft Paper input costs.
- Natural gas spot prices gradually rose in December 2025, increasing energy costs for Semi-Craft Paper production.
Semi-Craft Paper Prices in APAC
- In China, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index remained stable in Q4 2025, despite mixed macroeconomic signals.
- Semi-Craft Paper production costs declined in October 2025 due to improved access to chemicals for Chinese mills.
- Semi-Craft Paper demand strengthened in 2025, driven by increased e-commerce and food takeaway packaging usage.
- China's industrial production grew 5.2% year-on-year in December 2025, supporting Semi-Craft Paper demand.
- Weak consumer demand in December 2025, with 0.8% CPI and 0.9% retail sales growth, dampened overall demand.
- Producer prices declined 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating deflationary pressures for Semi-Craft Paper.
- Manufacturing activity expanded in December 2025, with new domestic orders growing, boosting packaging demand.
- The unemployment rate stood at 5.1% in December 2025, contributing to constrained consumer purchasing power.
- China's pulp production capacity expanded in 2025, contributing to structural overcapacity, impacting Semi-Craft Paper supply.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer spending, with retail sales up 0.9% in December 2025, dampened demand.
- Producer prices declined 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting broader deflationary pressures.
- Increased pulp production capacity in China during 2025 contributed to an oversupply situation.
Semi-Craft Paper Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025 and settled at USD 740/MT, reflecting weak demand and pricing power.
- Semi-Craft Paper production costs increased in Q4 2025, driven by upward trends in imported hardwood pulp spot prices.
- Demand for Semi-Craft Paper was impacted as the Manufacturing Index was contracting in December 2025.
- The Semi-Craft Paper Price Index was pressured by a -2.5% PPI year-over-year in December 2025.
- Pulp inventories at major European ports declined significantly in October and November 2025.
- Retail sales grew 1.1% year-over-year in November 2025, offering some support for Semi-Craft Paper demand.
- Higher wholesale electricity prices and 1.8% CPI in December 2025 increased production expenses.
- Low consumer confidence at -17.5 and a 6.2% unemployment rate in December 2025 dampened demand.
- Industrial production grew 0.8% year-over-year in October 2025, providing slight underlying support for demand.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Weak industrial pricing power, with PPI at -2.5% in December 2025, pressured prices.
- Contracting manufacturing activity in December 2025 reduced overall demand for Semi-Craft Paper packaging.
- Rising imported hardwood pulp spot prices in Q4 2025 increased Semi-Craft Paper production costs.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the United States, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increasing production costs and robust retail demand.
- Semi-Craft Paper production costs increased due to a 3.0% CPI rise in September 2025, reflecting broader inflationary pressures.
- Producer input costs were elevated by a 2.6% PPI increase in August 2025, impacting Semi-Craft Paper manufacturing expenses.
- Demand for Semi-Craft Paper was bolstered by a 5.42% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
- Industrial natural gas prices rose in August 2025, directly contributing to higher energy and feedstock costs for production.
- Industrial production increased by 0.1% in September 2025, reflecting near-stagnant growth in manufacturing output.
- E-commerce sales growth was surging in 2025, providing significant demand for Semi-Craft Paper packaging solutions.
- US containerboard production diminished in Q3 2025, while operating rates augmented, suggesting tighter supply conditions.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in September 2025 in North America?
- Rising input costs, with PPI up 2.6% in August 2025, elevated Semi-Craft Paper production expenses.
- Robust consumer spending, retail sales up 5.42% in September 2025, bolstered packaging material demand.
- Industrial natural gas prices rose in August 2025, increasing operational costs for manufacturers.
APAC
- In China, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by deflationary pressures.
- Semi-Craft Paper demand outlook softened due to the Manufacturing Index contracting in September 2025.
- Production costs for Semi-Craft Paper faced upward pressure as pulp feedstock costs firmed in Q3 2025.
- Manufacturing input prices remained elevated in September 2025, impacting overall production expenses.
- Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, providing some underlying demand support.
- Retail sales increased 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, though consumer spending moderated later in the quarter.
- Raw material inventories tightened in July, with the decline narrowing by September 2025, affecting supply dynamics.
- China's total goods imports and exports expanded in Q3 2025, despite declining US exports in September.
- The Consumer Confidence Index of 89.6 in September 2025 indicated a pessimistic consumer outlook.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Deflationary pressures from CPI (-0.3% YoY) and PPI (-2.3% YoY) in September 2025 reduced demand.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, signaling weaker industrial demand for packaging materials.
- Pulp feedstock costs firmed in Q3 2025, while declining coal prices eased power-related production costs.
Europe
- In Germany, the Semi-Craft Paper Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting industrial activity.
- Semi-Craft Paper production costs saw mixed trends; NBSK pulp costs eased, while natural gas prices remained elevated in Q3 2025.
- Germany's industrial production declined by 1.0% in September 2025, significantly weakening Semi-Craft Paper demand.
- The Manufacturing Index trended contracting in Q3 2025, further reducing overall demand for packaging materials.
- Producer prices (PPI) were lower by 1.7% in September 2025, primarily due to decreased energy costs for manufacturers.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in September 2025, indicating rising general operational expenses for producers.
- E-commerce packaging demand strengthened in Q3 2025, partially offsetting the broader packaging sector's weakness.
- Retail sales in Germany increased by 0.2% in September 2025, offering mild support for consumer-facing packaging.
- Ample mill inventories and cautious buying by pulp market participants characterized Q3 2025 in Germany.
- The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% in September 2025, suggesting cautious consumer spending.
Why did the price of Semi-Craft Paper change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Industrial production declined by 1.0% in September 2025, reducing demand for packaging materials.
- Producer prices fell 1.7% in September 2025, driven by lower energy costs for manufacturers.
- E-commerce packaging demand strengthened, while overall packaging sector demand weakened in Q3 2025.
