China has imposed a preliminary 75.8% anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola imports, a move that effectively closes the market and sends shockwaves through the agricultural sector.
The provisional duty, announced by China's Ministry of Commerce, will take effect on August 14, 2025. The ministry stated that an investigation, launched in September 2024, found that Canada's canola industry had benefited from substantial government subsidies and preferential policies, a finding that the Canadian government and industry vehemently dispute. This action follows the initial spark of the dispute, which began with Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last August.
In a joint statement, Canada’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu and Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald expressed deep disappointment with the decision, reiterating that Canada "do[es] not dump canola." They affirmed the high standards of Canadian canola products and committed to ensuring fair market access for the industry, while also signaling a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue with Chinese officials to resolve the issues. The statement highlighted Canada’s current trade conflicts with both China and the United States, noting the country's efforts to diversify its export markets.
China, the world's largest importer of canola, sources the vast majority of its supply from Canada, and this steep tariff is seen by many as a clear signal that Chinese buyers are to look elsewhere.
For China, replacing millions of tons of Canadian canola will be a significant challenge. The oilseed is a vital component for its animal feed and cooking oil sectors. While the move presents a potential opportunity for Australia, which is reportedly poised to regain access to the Chinese market after a long-standing freeze, analysts note that Australia's supply alone is unlikely to fully replace the volume and quality provided by Canada.
The timing of the decision is particularly difficult for Canadian farmers, who are just beginning their canola harvest. Canadian Canola Growers Association expressed concern about the "damping effect on price" that farmers will now face. The market uncertainty is compounded by the fact that this is a preliminary ruling, leaving open the question of whether it is a final decision or a negotiating tactic in the wider geopolitical tug-of-war. The situation is further complicated by China’s simultaneous launch of an anti-dumping probe into Canadian pea starch and the imposition of provisional duties on halogenated butyl rubber, suggesting a broader pattern of trade friction.
