China Naphtha Market Steadies as Coal-to-Chemicals Advantage Caps Demand in September 2025

China Naphtha Market Steadies as Coal-to-Chemicals Advantage Caps Demand in September 2025

Peter Schmidt 12-Sep-2025

In first week of September 2025, China's Naphtha market took on a slightly firmer tone in early September due to stable upstream costs and solid domestic supply chain with demand being cautious from ethylene-linked polymers and limited converters restocking based on the seasonal element. Geopolitical tensions on the supply side added some further tightening of crude processing across a few regions while some increased seaborne flows into Asia worked off some availability. The overall macro signals were mixed as recent weak manufacturing data helps slow down expectations for stronger rebound in petrochemical consumption.

Key highlights

  • Spot move: Hydrogenated naphtha Ex-Hebei rose x.xxx in the week ended x September. 
  • Futures base: Regional naphtha futures stabilized around USD xxx/tonne; off the lows driven by April slump near USD xxx/tonne. 
  • Downstream tone: LDPE/HDPE prices steady; slightly lower for LLDPE as orders were slow and cautious restocking. 
  • Feedstock economics: Coal based olefins profitability continued to outperform oil-based routes, which is putting pressure on naphtha linked demand. 
  • Logistics backdrop: Intra-Asia freight softened at the end of August, supporting some stability in delivered costs.

Demand-Side Analysis

Demand across China’s ethylene chain on Naphtha-derived feedstock saw a stable but subdued reaction. LDPE and HDPE prices were steady, while LLDPE settled lower due to softer new order flows and slanted stock positioning, thus stunting the typical September rise. Factories are looking to procure low pricing outlet on material in a weak speculative environment, limiting the upside from feedstock-led pass-through....

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Naphtha

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