Hot Rolled Coil prices across Europe kept falling in the third week of May 2025, with Germany seeing a marginal 0.2% decrease while Italy dropped more noticeably by 0.6%. The continued decline reflects persistent challenges from weak spot demand, competitive import pressure, and seasonal uncertainties that are making it tough for mills to find their footing.

What's Happening:

•             HRC prices fell 0.2% in Germany and 0.6% in Italy during the third week of May

•             Major European mills dropped their offers significantly after months of holding higher prices

•             Import competition from Indonesia and other suppliers continues pressuring domestic HRC markets

•             Mills are sitting on excess inventory while consumption stays low across the region

•             Buyers are holding off on big purchases, hoping for better HRC prices down the road

A slight 0.2% price decline was observed in Germany's HRC market as mills in Northern Europe found it difficult to hold onto their positions. Despite earlier hopes for higher prices, German producers had to face reality and adjust their HRC offers downward to keep order books from going completely empty. The adjustment started when a leading mill broke ranks and lowered prices, forcing others to follow suit or risk losing business entirely. Market folks noted that while the decline wasn't dramatic, it represented a clear shift from previous pricing strategies.

Italy got hit harder with HRC prices falling 0.6% as Southern European markets felt more pressure. Some tube producers managed to negotiate even lower prices for bigger orders, showing how desperate mills are getting for volume. Italian re-rollers are blaming current market conditions for their pricing decisions, with tradable values now sitting near what many consider a lower threshold. The bigger drop in Italian HRC prices reflects the region's particular vulnerability to import competition and weaker local demand.

Import offers are really stirring things up in the European HRC market. Indonesian suppliers are offering competitive pricing for delivery to both Italy and Antwerp, creating headaches for domestic producers. While some pipe manufacturers have secured substantial volumes from Indonesian suppliers, smaller buyers are staying cautious about lead times and size flexibility. A trader mentioned that while quality from imports varies, it's generally acceptable enough to pose a real threat to European HRC producers.

The steady flow of cheaper import offers is forcing European mills to rethink their pricing strategies entirely. Distributors are finding it increasingly difficult to justify domestic HRC prices when imports keep coming in at lower levels.

As per ChemAnalyst, the European HRC market outlook remains soft heading into summer, with further base price declines expected in Italy and continued pressure in Germany. Recovery will likely depend on improved consumption levels, which may not materialize until fall when seasonal demand typically picks up. For meaningful HRC price stabilization, mills need to see reduced import competition, better demand from key sectors, and successful inventory management to balance supply with actual market needs.