Fertiglobe sees firm ammonia and urea prices amid supply constraints, strong demand, and advances in green hydrogen and low-carbon ammonia projects.
Fertiglobe, a leading nitrogen fertiliser producer in the Middle East and North Africa, has indicated that global prices for ammonia and urea are likely to remain stable and firm in the near term. This outlook is largely driven by ongoing supply limitations that continue to constrain availability in key markets. In its first-quarter 2026 financial statement, the company emphasized that restricted output levels across major producing regions are supporting price resilience, even as demand remains consistent.
A significant factor reinforcing this pricing trend is the steady import demand for urea from major agricultural economies such as India, the United States, and Australia. These countries continue to rely heavily on external supplies to meet domestic fertiliser requirements, particularly during peak planting seasons. Additionally, the absence of Chinese urea exports—expected to persist until at least the middle of the second quarter of 2026—has tightened global supply further. China has historically played a major role in balancing international fertiliser markets, and its continued export restrictions are creating a more constrained environment, contributing to sustained price strength.
Looking beyond the immediate term, Fertiglobe highlighted that demand fundamentals for nitrogen-based fertilisers remain strong across both agricultural and industrial sectors. Agricultural demand is supported by the need to enhance crop yields and ensure food security for growing populations, while industrial applications—including chemicals and emerging clean energy solutions—are also expanding. This combination of factors is expected to maintain a constructive and supportive pricing environment for nitrogen products over the long run.
In parallel with its market outlook, Fertiglobe provided updates on its strategic sustainability initiatives. The company expects the Egypt Green Hydrogen project located in Ain Sokhna to reach its Final Investment Decision (FID) in the coming months. This project represents a key step in Fertiglobe’s transition toward cleaner energy solutions and reduced carbon emissions. The development is supported by the H2Global auction award secured in July 2024, which will take effect from 2027. According to the company, this agreement offers essential demand assurance and pricing visibility, thereby strengthening the project's commercial viability and accelerating progress toward FID.
The Egypt Green Hydrogen project is being developed by a consortium led by Scatec, in partnership with Orascom Construction, The Sovereign Fund of Egypt, and Fertiglobe. The facility will include a 100-megawatt electrolyser designed to produce renewable hydrogen, which will then serve as feedstock for manufacturing up to 74,000 tonnes of renewable ammonia annually at Fertiglobe’s existing facilities in Ain Sokhna.
Additionally, Fertiglobe reaffirmed its timeline for the launch of its “Project Harvest,” a lower-carbon ammonia initiative based in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi. The project is expected to begin operations next year and will have a production capacity of 1 million tonnes per annum. It is located within the TA’ZIZ Industrial Chemicals Zone in Ruwais Industrial City and is being developed in collaboration with several strategic partners. These include TA’ZIZ—a joint venture between ADNOC and ADQ—as well as Mitsui & Co. and GS Energy Corporation.
Overall, Fertiglobe’s outlook reflects a combination of tight supply conditions, resilient global demand, and strategic investments in sustainable ammonia production, all of which are expected to shape the nitrogen fertiliser market in the coming years.
