Hot-rolled coil prices in Germany decreased by 0.8% in the week of September 19, 2025, due to continued weak demand and an unwillingness from buyers to digest mill increases, which restricted mills’ attempts to realize higher pricing. Uncertainties surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism continued to stifle import activity.
In the week that ended September 19, 2025, the German hot-rolled coil (HRC) market faced more downward pressure as HRC prices fell by 0.8%, as the continued weakness in demand outweighed previous producers' attempts to stabilize pricing. The market continued to be oversupplied, and demand from end-users remained weak, creating a challenging situation for domestic producers to keep prices from falling even with the very competitive oversupplied market.
Key Takeaways:
Regional Analysis
Pricing dynamics for German HRC mirrored the stagnation of the general European market, and the 0.8% decrease from the previous week's price indicated that mills were unable to make earlier incremental gains for the summer season stick. The HRC markets in Northern Europe showed a similar pattern, where initial offers demonstrated no flexibility to negotiate; however, actual transactions demonstrated downward pressure on prices. There was always a gap in the pricing intentions of suppliers and the price expectations of buyers that persisted and prevented any significant volume clearing.
In the Benelux, market players reflected German assessments of the sustainability of HRC pricing. Buyers continuously estimated achievable price levels below mills offers, while pricing in the pending October - November delivery period was completely detached from trading realities. The regional conformity suggested underlying demand issues versus localized supply disruptions affecting HRC pricing.
The Southern European HRC markets, primarily Italy, remained equally subdued after the seasonal holidays. Limited trading activity coupled with buyer hesitancy over the sustainability of any recovery in pricing only added to the bearish sentiment impacting German HRC pricing, and all the European market conditions prevented regional arbitrage.
Market Dynamics and Import Competition
Although numerous suppliers offered competitive pricing, import competition remained limited. Turkish HRC suppliers witnessed allocation constraints upon consuming the July-September quotas, while Indian and Indonesian offers did not create a meaningful interest from buyers. The forthcoming implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism added further uncertainty, as some buyers placed bookings with Saudi Arabian and Indonesian suppliers for secured delivery in 2025 in case of potential complications with the CBAM.
While the limited interest in imports provided some underpinning for domestic HRC pricing, it did not outweigh the underlying fundamentals to avert a weekly decline. European mills were not able to take advantage of the lower import pressure due to continuing end-user caution and the inventory levels maintained from earlier restocking.
Future Outlook
According to ChemAnalyst, German HRC prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the near term with further modest declines expected until meaningful demand recovery occurs. Stabilization likely won’t commence until end-user demand recovers meaningfully and is able to lose some of the current oversupply situation, while clarity around CBAM implementation may affect import dynamics and provide more context for domestic HRC pricing strategies through Q4.
