German HRC prices declined in the last week of July amid minimal trading activity during the summer slowdown. Mills attempted slight price increases but faced buyer resistance, with substantial inventory levels and vacation-related consumption weakness limiting market momentum despite cautious optimism for September recovery.
The final week of July 2025 saw a 0.4% price decline in the German Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market as buyer resistance to higher offers and seasonal trading quietness dominated market dynamics. Vacation-period disruptions and significant inventory overhangs throughout the supply chain kept the market mostly stagnant, despite mills' efforts to achieve modest price increases after years of declines since May.
Key Takeaways:
Germany's modest price drop, which reflected buyer dominance in negotiations, illustrated the difficult dynamics that the European HRC markets faced during the summer. German buyers observed that the market was completely stagnant, mostly because of the holiday season. Offers for coils delivered in October were reportedly higher, but no transactions were confirmed. The fundamental disconnect was brought to light by the large discrepancy between bids and offers; steel service centers cited large inventories and a lack of consumption support as the main obstacles. A negotiation deadlock that favored modest price erosion for HRC was caused by mills rejecting lower bids and buyers being reluctant to accept higher offers.
Northern Europe showed mixed signals with reporting slight daily index increases despite week-on-week decreases, indicating volatile short-term pricing dynamics. The regional HRC market faced similar vacation-related disruptions, though some manufacturers achieved marginal transaction price improvements in recent weeks, suggesting underlying resilience despite seasonal headwinds.
Due to cautious optimism about the state of the Chinese market, some suppliers started to raise their offers, but import competition remained stable with Turkish and Indian HRC offers maintaining consistent ranges. Although buyers estimated achievable prices varied greatly depending on origin, the stability of import pricing gave domestic HRC markets a floor. Industry sources predicted that the effects of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism would not be felt until early 2026, and that the availability of sufficient import coils would help to avoid any shortages.
According to ChemAnalyst, the German HRC market outlook for August is still cautiously stable, with inventory overhangs and ongoing disruptions during the vacation period probably limiting price movements. The prospects for a recovery in September hinge on the manufacturing sectors' ability to successfully revive demand and close the current offer-bid gap. HRC mills' forward pricing strategies suggest that the market will improve as trading activity returns to normal after the summer break.
