Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices are showing resilience in the second half of 2025, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances and evolving global trade policies. With production still on the upswing, especially in Asia, demand is yet to catch up, putting pressure on pricing and inventory levels.
In Asia, one of the major producers and exporters of PVC, aggressive expansion is taking place at new ethylene-based capacities in China. Jiangsu, Fujian, Tianjin, and Qingdao are likely to contribute almost 1.7 million metric tons of new PVC production by the end of the year. Nevertheless, regional demand continues to lag, causing increasing uncertainty over oversupply. The producers might have to cut production rates to cope with excess stocks, particularly as freight prices are still volatile and exports are increasingly encountering obstacles.
In India, the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) directive, originally expected to tighten PVC import restrictions, has now been deferred to December 2025.This postponement, coupled with the expected outcome of an anti-dumping probe, due by late August, has made the market players cautious.
Despite uncertainty, demand for PVC may improve somewhat in Q3, particularly after the monsoons, with infrastructure expenditure and festival season restocking. Importers are still apprehensive, though, because of a high inventory base and uncertain regulatory guidance.
Qatar, is set to emerge as a major player in the PVC export market. Part of the volume will go to India, but most of the exports will go to Europe and Africa, where there are higher margins and less competition domestically.
At the same time, Europe's market for PVC is being tested by low demand, high costs of production, and increasing competition from imports. Prospective plant shutdowns in the region, especially from smaller, less integrated producers, would reset the supply picture. That said, German promises to invest in infrastructure and a possible peace accord between Russia and Ukraine could provide some upside in the months ahead.
In the America, competition among U.S. and Chinese PVC exporters is intensifying, especially in the Latin American market. Import duties on both nations by Brazil have led to Egypt and Colombia's exporters taking market share.
According to ChemAnalyst, PVC prices globally are likely to remain under pressure during late 2025 due to ongoing supply overhang, led by Asian region. Europe can experience additional rationalization with poor European consumption and high costs driving smaller PVC producers to shutdowns. Qatar's entry into the export market may sharpen competition, particularly in Europe and Africa. In the Americas, changing trade flows and new Brazilian tariffs will redefine supplier balances. In general, PVC prices can remain volatile with limited support from seasonal demand and geopolitical events.
