The US domestic aluminium alloy ingot market closed December on a positive note due to constant scrap movement and a stable automotive sector. Factors such as imports, cost of alloying materials, and increased tariffs on energy also pushed aluminium alloy ingot prices up, setting a positive trend for Q1 2026.
The US prices of aluminium alloy ingot finished the month of December with a 2.5% increase due to increased sales of hybrid auto models. The increase in the sales of hybrid models, coupled with steady EV production, helped sustain an optimistic mood towards the close of the week ending on the 26th of December.
Domestic aluminium alloy ingot producers also operated near steady-state utilization, supported by dependable scrap collections from automotive dismantlers and municipal recycling centers. Feedstock aluminum scrap prices stayed within a tight USD 15/ton band to provide predictable input costs for producers. Two major Midwest cast houses continued above 80% utilization, no different than in November, as these operations had secured hydropower-indexed electricity contracts that have insulated them from near-term natural gas volatility. No plant outages or maintenance disruptions were reported among US producers to keep supply of aluminium alloy ingot in check.
Import shipments from Bahrain and the UAE arrived on regular cargo schedules, facilitated by uneventful west coast port activity following resolution of labour talks at the end of November. Section 232 duties kept imported offers about USD 320 per ton above the domestic scrap-based metal, limiting import volumes. Alloying elements were mixed: silicon metal offers from Brazil were flat, but magnesium premiums increased on production cuts in Shaanxi that resulted in reduced Chinese export availability. Even so, die casters found no immediate shortages in supply, and overall supply conditions remained in balance with no congestion or inventory overhangs. Higher tariffs for power and increased prices for alloying materials, dented the smelting sector by escalating costs. Meanwhile, healthy demand for A380.1 aluminium alloy ingot, for car applications, supported demand.
Automotive remained the principal driver of demand of aluminium alloy ingot. The forecast of light vehicle production in December in the North American region is 1.18 million units, close to the November production level. The volume of the EV with extensive aluminium content increased to 10% of overall production, while the sales of hybrids grew as the automaker shifted their approach to electrification. The overall purchases of the Tier 1 die casters remained stable, with some casters shifting their sales of January aluminium alloy ingot production in order to avoid any impending New Year freight charge.
A moderately strong and steady market trend is to be expected in the aluminium alloy ingot market in Q1, 2026, but it would emerge differently compared to the latter part of 2025. The drastic reduction in overall EV sales, which has been driven by the withdrawal of government purchase subsidies amounting to up to $7,500, is expected to depress short-term demand activation from the automotive industry. As overall EV sales are expected to plummet in Q4, 2025, and then stagnate throughout this year, demand activation for die casting alloys specific to EV may decelerate. Nonetheless, the overall automotive industry should also maintain aluminium alloy ingot demand at minimum levels. Hybrid automotive models are further gaining momentum, and light automotive vehicle production will continue at levels sufficient to sustain minimum aluminium alloy ingot demand. No changes are expected in overall supply trends, which will maintain balanced scrap and smelting levels, thereby averting drastic aluminium alloy ingot price fluctuations.
