Packaging polymer prices are rising in August 2026 as renewed Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supply, lifting HDPE, LDPE and PP while squeezing converters.
HDPE remains 41% above pre-crisis levels and BOPP converter spreads have turned negative as the Strait of Hormuz closes a second time. What ChemAnalyst's weekly China assessments say about August.
What procurement professionals should consider in August 2026
1. Cover HDPE first. Least downside, most upside. Waiting has cost money for four months.
2. Treat LDPE liquid packaging as scarcity risk, not price risk. Secure volume; negotiate second.
3. Reprice film contracts now. A negative film-over-resin spread is unsustainable.
4. Use PET leverage while it lasts. The only grade where the buyer holds the whip hand.
5. Model reopening as a slow fade. Dow's assessment stands: even an immediate reopening needs 275 days to clear the resin logjam.
Key takeaways
• HDPE never normalised — injection moulding grade (EXW Jiangsu) is USD 1,285/tonne, still +41.4% above February after a full destock.
• Resins turned higher in the week to 10 July 2026 — PP +1.6%, HDPE +1.2% — while BOPP film fell 3.8%. Resin and film now move in opposite directions.
• The BOPP-over-PP indicative spread has gone negative, +USD 89/t to −USD 15/t: a USD 104/t swing against converters.
• August base case: prices grind higher, led by HDPE and LDPE. PET is the exception.
All prices below are ChemAnalyst weekly assessments for the China market. Indian, European and US price behaviour has diverged materially.
|
Product (China) |
Feb avg |
Peak |
10-Jul |
vs peak |
vs pre-crisis |
|
HDPE injection moulding, EXW Jiangsu |
909 |
1,310 |
1,285 |
−1.9% |
41.40% |
|
HDPE film grade, FOB Dalian |
914 |
1,315 |
1,260 |
−4.2% |
37.90% |
|
PP injection moulding, EXW Dalian |
952 |
1,395 |
1,245 |
−10.8% |
30.70% |
|
BOPP film 30 micron, FOB Shanghai |
1,041 |
1,412 |
1,230 |
−12.9% |
18.10% |
|
PET bottle grade, Ex-Shanghai |
802 |
1,120 |
910 |
−18.8% |
13.40% |
|
LDPE liquid packaging, CFR Shanghai |
1,310 |
1,954 |
1,410 |
−27.8% |
7.60% |
USD/tonne. ChemAnalyst China assessments, 06-Feb-26 to 10-Jul-26.
Every grade repriced 35–50% within eight weeks of the 28 February closure: 84% of Middle East PE capacity depends on the Strait, and 80% of Asia's seaborne naphtha demand was Middle East-supplied. Prices then came off unevenly — but read the right-hand column. HDPE never came back. The relief was a destocking rally, not a supply recovery; the Strait only partially reopened, at 39% of pre-crisis volume in early July.
The converter squeeze
BOPP film FOB Shanghai minus PP injection moulding EXW Dalian: +USD 89/t (Feb) → +USD 54/t (3-Jul) → −USD 15/t (10-Jul). Film assesses below the resin that makes it.
The corroboration is stark. A March 2026 German Association of Plastics Processors survey found 99% of packaging manufacturers facing supplier price increases, only a handful able to pass them on. A Korea Federation of Plastics Industry Cooperatives survey of 37 firms found over 70% warned of possible resin shipment cuts, and 92% of price increases.
Capacity is already idling. LG Chem temporarily shut its No. 2 naphtha cracker at Yeosu in March, then imported 27,000 tonnes of Russian naphtha. Force majeures followed — PT Chandra Asri on 755,000 t/y of PE (Indonesia), Formosa Petrochemical on 2.93 Mt/y of ethylene (Taiwan). Sun Chemical imposed surcharges across every division, citing a conflict hitting energy markets, logistics routes and feedstock availability.
Not everyone concedes the point. Amcor CEO Peter Konieczny told investors he did not expect "any material impact on our Q4 earnings. Yet the same disclosure cut FY2026 free cash flow guidance from USD 1.8–1.9 billion to USD 1.5–1.6 billion, citing higher inventory at higher cost to protect customer service through the conflict. A USD 300 million swing is what "no material impact" costs.
(Spread caveat: injection grade proxies BOPP-grade PP; EXW vs FOB carries a basis. Both are near-constant weekly, so the USD 104/t swing holds even if the level is approximate.)
Outlook: August 2026
PP bottomed at USD 1,225 on 3 July; HDPE injection bottomed at USD 1,248 on 26 June and has added 3.0% since — moves that predate the 9–11 July escalation being priced. War-risk insurance sits at roughly 8× pre-crisis, with several P&I clubs withdrawing cover.
|
Product (China) |
10-Jul |
A: Restriction persists (~55%) |
B: De-escalation (~30%) |
C: Full closure + Gulf strikes (~15%) |
|
HDPE injection moulding |
1,285 |
1,330 – 1,420 |
1,180 – 1,250 |
1,500 – 1,650 |
|
HDPE film grade |
1,260 |
1,310 – 1,400 |
1,160 – 1,230 |
1,480 – 1,620 |
|
PP injection moulding |
1,245 |
1,280 – 1,360 |
1,150 – 1,210 |
1,450 – 1,600 |
|
LDPE liquid packaging |
1,410 |
1,480 – 1,620 |
1,280 – 1,360 |
1,750 – 1,950 |
|
BOPP film 30 micron |
1,230 |
1,250 – 1,330 |
1,160 – 1,220 |
1,400 – 1,500 |
|
PET bottle grade |
910 |
900 – 960 |
840 – 890 |
1,050 – 1,150 |
USD/tonne, China market. Scenario bands are editorial judgement, not forecast model output.
HDPE leads: no buffer left after a full destock. LDPE is the coiled spring — deepest retracement, least substitutable grade. PP rises on cost, not scarcity; China is PP self-sufficient, so watch propylene. BOPP reprices 4–8% or lines cut rates. PET stays bearish — only the MEG leg is Hormuz-exposed, and USD 900/tonne is the level to watch: a break below signals demand destruction, not cost inflation.
Based on ChemAnalyst weekly China price assessments, 06-Feb-2026 to 10-Jul-2026.
