German rapeseed meal exports declined sharply due to lower crushing activity, weaker demand, and rising competition from cheaper soybean meal imports.
German rapeseed meal exports have seen a notable decline in recent periods, falling significantly below previous year's levels. This trend reflects various market shifts, including reduced domestic processing and increased competition from cheaper alternative protein sources.
Germany's rapeseed meal exports experienced a substantial drop in the July to November 2025 period, decreasing by 22% to 537,000 tonnes compared to the same timeframe in 2024. Similarly, from July 2024 to April 2025, exports totaled just over 1.4 million tonnes, marking a 9% reduction from the prior year. Most of these exports typically go to other European Union (EU) member states.
Key destinations, such as the Netherlands, saw a significant decrease in imports from Germany. Deliveries to the Netherlands fell by 30% to approximately 200,000 tonnes between July and November 2025. Sweden, another major buyer, also recorded lower imports. While some countries like Denmark, Finland, and France showed increased imports during certain periods, these were not sufficient to offset overall declines.
Several factors contribute to this downturn. A primary cause is the reduced crushing activity within German oil mills. Additionally, there is stable or lower domestic demand for rapeseed meal in Germany.
Increased competition from alternative protein sources, particularly soybean meal, also plays a crucial role. Soybean meal is often more competitively priced, leading to its increased import by EU countries. For instance, EU imports of soybean meal are projected to increase significantly in the 2024/25 season, partly due to limited supply and high prices for rapeseed and sunflower meal. Imports of rapeseed meal from non-EU countries, such as Russia and Belarus, have also risen due to attractive pricing, further impacting the German market.
The decline in rapeseed meal exports has significant economic implications for German crushers and the wider agricultural sector. The Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP) highlights that the biodiesel market is vital for German and European rapeseed producers and mills. Rapeseed processing for biodiesel simultaneously generates rapeseed meal, a crucial protein source for animal feed.
The UFOP strongly opposes proposed reductions in the cap on biofuels from cultivated biomass, as outlined in the Federal Ministry for the Environment's draft bill to amend greenhouse gas quota legislation. This legislation aims to implement the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). The association argues that such policy changes threaten the integrated bioeconomy model, where biofuel production and the availability of domestic rapeseed meal are interdependent. They advocate for increasing the blending limit for biofuels to 5.3% to support the sector.
The broader EU market also faces structural changes, with a projected 5.9% decline in net EU oilseed imports by 2035. This reflects contracting biofuel demand, a shrinking livestock sector, and rising domestic oilseed production in the EU. These shifts will likely lead to weaker demand for imported rapeseed and reshape the EU crushing industry over the next decade.
Impact on Prices of Chemical Commodities Tracked by ChemAnalyst
The decline in German rapeseed meal exports is expected to exert mixed pricing pressure across agricultural and bio-based commodities tracked by ChemAnalyst. Rapeseed meal prices may remain subdued in the European market due to weaker export demand and increased competition from lower-cost soybean meal. Soybean meal prices could stay relatively firm as import demand strengthens across the EU feed sector. Reduced rapeseed crushing activity may tighten the supply of rapeseed oil, providing moderate support to rapeseed oil prices, particularly if biodiesel demand remains stable. However, if Germany proceeds with lower biofuel blending mandates, biodiesel production could weaken, reducing demand for rapeseed oil and limiting any significant price gains. Glycerine, a biodiesel by-product, may also experience tighter supply if biodiesel output declines, offering slight upward price support. Overall, feed protein markets are likely to remain competitive, while vegetable oil and biodiesel-related chemical commodities could witness moderate price volatility driven by policy decisions and crushing margins.
